The Big Ten has seen a lot of key changes and will be unpredictable in 2022-23
Whether it’s Purdue losing their stars, Illinois losing Kofi Cockburn, Iowa losing a lottery pick, and more, the Big Ten basketball standings could be more unpredictable than ever in 2022-23. While many players left to enter the transfer portal or NBA draft, there are multiple returning stars and it starts with Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis and Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson.
With this preview, I’ve decided to split the 14 teams into three different tiers based on projections and overall analysis for each team. Typically, this number of teams would require more than three tiers, but there is just so much uncertainty in the conference this season. This league could have anywhere from five to nine teams get bids into the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Let’s get into the preview.
The Tier of Bottom Feeders
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Last Season: 10-22 (4-16 Big Ten)
The Fred Hoiberg era in Nebraska basketball has not been good, to put it mildly. The 2021-22 season was the first season in Lincoln where Hoiberg got them to double-digit wins. Prior to that, they won seven games in 2019-20 and the same in 2020-21. Despite these struggles, they landed Bryce McGowens last season, a five-star. He is now gone after being a second-round pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. They are bringing back a couple of key players Derrick Walker and CJ Wilcher, as well as three decent transfers (Emmanuel Bandoumel, Sam Griesel, and Juwan Gary).
Season Prediction: 14th (11-18, 5-15 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: G Sam Griesel (North Dakota State transfer)
Most Underrated Player: F Derrick Walker (Seems like he’s been at Nebraska since 2010)
The outlook remains bleak for this program this season, I don’t expect them to do much. They’ll play an uptempo style, but the talent gap will be large in most of their matchups this season. This season could be the one where Nebraska moves on from Hoiberg, but I wouldn’t hold my breath if I were a Cornhusker supporter. There is no reason to believe that this team will be significantly better than last season.
Northwestern Wildcats
Last Season: 15-16 (7-13 Big Ten)
Chris Collins is entering his 10th season with the Wildcats. They’ve made it to the tournament one time during that time. Other than that season, it’s been disappointment after disappointment for Collins. The expectations for the program have always been low, but there has been a number of good players passing through the program in the last six or seven seasons with nothing to show for it. They lost their best player Pete Nance to the portal, he left for North Carolina. Their lineup on paper is not the worst in the conference, but it’s not great. Losing Nance and Ryan Young took away their entire frontcourt from last season.
They need Boo Buie to be consistent for them to have success, the same can also be said about redshirt senior guard Chase Audige. I look for them to be competitive this season, but still nowhere near the contending part of the conference.
Season Prediction: 13th (15-15, 7-11 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: G Boo Buie (14.1 ppg last season)
Most Underrated Player: G Ty Berry (23 pts against Ohio State last season)
A zero-win improvement in the Big Ten for Northwestern. Is that enough for Collins to keep his job? Normally, I would say no, but it doesn’t seem like there is enough heat on him right now. This team will struggle against teams with elite defensive guards, and this league has plenty of them.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Last Season: 13-17 (4-16 Big Ten)
It’s year two for Ben Johnson in Minneapolis. After a 9-0 run in non-conference play last season, Minnesota got dominated in conference play. They were simply a bad team last season after losing key players like Marcus Carr and Jamal Mashburn Jr. This could be another rough season for the Gophers with Johnson at the helm, The positives are Jamison Battle returning, transfer additions like Dawson Garcia and Ta’lon Cooper, and potential freshman starter Braeden Carrington.
Their starting five is solid, but they lack depth and a lot of their recruits are lower-level players that may not be cut out for the league. They’ll have a couple of potential all-league payers with Battle and Garcia, but it’s not great after those two.
Season Prediction: 12th (14-16, 8-12 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: F Jamison Battle (17.5 ppg last season)
Most Underrated Player: G Ta’lon Cooper (34 minutes per game at Morehead State last season)
I feel like 8-12 is more respect than most are giving this team, but I believe that these players will play for Johnson. They proved that with some of their wins last season, but it will be another long season for them.
Maryland Terrapins
Last Season: 15-17 (7-13 Big Ten)
It’s year one for Kevin Willard in College Park. He left Seton Hall after a disappointing season, only to be replaced by Shaheen Holloway from the cinderella Saint Peter’s run. Three of the Terps’ best players from last season have departed (Eric Ayala, Fatts Russell, Qudus Wahab). As much as I believe that Willard is a quality coach, this is a transition year for them. They’ll have an entirely new system with a roster that hasn’t played much together.
They could surprise some, but I don’t think they’ll be a major threat this season. None of this diminishes the fact that Willard did well in the portal, adding four players and two of them will likely start.
Season Prediction: 11th (16-14, 8-12 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: F Donta Scott (Needs to improve efficiency from last season)
Most Underrated Player: G Jahmir Young (19.6 ppg at Charlotte last season)
They’ve found solid replacements for Russell, Ayala, and Wahab, but it’s going to be a rough season for the Terps.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Last Season: 14-17 (7-13 Big Ten)
The first season for Micah Shrewsberry at Penn State was not bad considering the roster he had. They played a frisky style and were hard to play against at times in the season. They have three solid returning starters with G Jalen Pickett, G/F Myles Dread, and G/F Seth Lundy. They should be a tough team to play against this season, but they’re still a ways away from competing for a tournament bid.
Season Prediction: 10th (16-13, 9-11 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: G Cameron Wynter (15.8 ppg at Drexel last season)
Most Underrated Player: G Andrew Funk (17.5 ppg at Bucknell last season, potential sixth man)
This team will be toward the top of the conference in defensive efficiency, mark that down. They have the necessary length and athleticism to be tough to score against. The problem will be scoring and consistency with this roster. Their non-conference schedule is easy, so they need to get off to a good start if they want to truly compete this season.
The Tier of Tournament Hopefuls
Wisconsin Badgers
Last Season: 25-8 (15-5 Big Ten)
Wisconsin was underrated going into last season but fought their way to a regular season co-conference title with Johnny Davis breaking out. They lost Davis and Brad Davison, but their roster is still solid. However, I think Greg Gard’s team is due to come back down to earth in some respects this season. This is a huge season for both Chucky Hepburn and Tyler Wahl, who are expected to lead the team.
Season Prediction: 9th (18-11, 9-11 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: F Tyler Wahl (Biggest role of his career this season)
Most Underrated Player: G Kamari McGee (Solid backup for Hepburn)
Wisconsin will be close to the bubble this season, but I think they’ll miss the tournament. I don’t think they have enough depth or elite scoring to tally enough wins in the conference. Rebounding could be a major issue for this team, keep an eye out for that.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Last Season: 18-14 (12-8 Big Ten)
Two of the program’s best players left after last season, Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker. However, Steve Pikiell remains one of the best coaches in the conference. They retained three major contributors with Caleb McConnell, Paul Mulcahy, and Clifford Omoruyi. Outside of that, there are a lot of unknowns for this Rutgers team. I expect their defense to be better this season than it was last season, but the offense could be an issue.
Season Prediction: 8th (17-14, 10-10 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: C Clifford Omoruyi (One of the elite bigs in the conference)
Most Underrated Player: F Aundre Hyatt (Could take on a major bench role this season)
This is another bubble team in the conference. They have some unknown commodities behind Omoruyi that could play big roles, but they need McConnell and Mulcahy to take their offensive games up a notch for this team to have success.
Michigan State Spartans
Last Season: 23-13 (11-9 Big Ten)
Tom Izzo is entering his 28th season at Michigan State. They are likely to have a starting five of all returning players. Big losses include Max Christie and Gabe Brown, their production could be hard to replace. This roster has a lot of question marks for me, it’s clear that Izzo’s teams haven’t lived up to the hype over the last several seasons.
Season Prediction: 7th (16-13, 10-10 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: G Tyson Walker (Could be used to the Big Ten)
Most Underrated Player: C Mady Sissoko (A bigger role incoming)
The Spartans’ non-conference schedule is ROUGH. They play the likes of Gonzaga, Kentucky, Villanova, Alabama, and Notre Dame in a row. It’s going to be tough to get to 20 wins with that schedule, especially with how hard it is to be dominant in the conference. Another challenging season is coming for Izzo.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Last Season: 26-10 (12-8 Big Ten)
Similar to Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes were undervalued going into last season with the losses of Luka Garza and Joe Wieskamp. Thanks to the breakout season of Keegan Murray, the Hawkeyes were a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament and won the Big Ten Tournament. I’ve watched far too much Big Ten basketball to know that Fran McCaffery will always have a competitive, high-level offensive team.
Season Prediction: 6th (20-10, 10-10 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: F Patrick McCaffery (Everybody says Kris Murray, I’ll zag)
Most Underrated Player: F Payton Sandfort (This kid can absolutely play)
I think Iowa is a tournament team, but I’m not comfortable guaranteeing it. Their backcourt will be interesting and it could be harder for them to score points than it usually is, but they will be competitive.
Purdue Boilermakers
Last Season: 29-8 (14-6 Big Ten)
Matt Painter’s team has lost a ton from last season. Jaden Ivey (17.3 ppg, lottery pick), Trevion Williams (12 ppg), Sasha Stefanovic (10.4 ppg), and Eric Hunter (6.2 ppg). They bring in transfer David Jenkins Jr. from Utah and a freshman class of four players. Only five players that played for the 2021-22 team are returning this season: G Ethan Morton, F Mason Gillis, C Zach Edey, F Caleb Furst, and G Brandon Newman. This is going to be an interesting team to watch this season, so much unpredictability.
Season Prediction: 5th (19-10, 11-9 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: C Zach Edey (Not many can size up with him)
Most Underrated Player: F Mason Gillis (Extremely efficient last season)
I won’t doubt the coaching ability of Painter this season. They have a strong group of starters, but they won’t be a standout team like they were last season.
The Tier of Tournament Teams
Michigan Wolverines
Last Season: 19-15 (11-9 Big Ten)
The first word that comes to mind with Juwan Howard’s Wolverines is TALENT. They are a very talented team with elite center Hunter Dickinson returning. They also added a couple of important transfers G Jaelin Llewellyn (15.7 ppg) and G Joey Baker (was at Duke). It’ll be interesting to see if they can get off to a better start this season, it’s going to be difficult with Virginia, Kentucky, and North Carolina on the docket.
Season Prediction: 4th (20-10, 12-8 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: C Hunter Dickinson (Could be the Big Ten POTY)
Most Underrated Player: G Kobe Bufkin (Showed flashes last season, will have a bigger role in 2022-23)
This is a tournament team with a better seed than last year when they reached the Sweet 16 as an 11-seed. Dickinson should dominate the Big Ten and they have quality scoring and glue guys on this squad. I expect Michigan to be underrated for parts of the season after a tough non-conference schedule.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Last Season: 23-10 (15-5 Big Ten)
Brad Underwood has turned this program around with a 31-9 conference record over the last two seasons. Despite losing Ayo Dosunmu before last season and Kofi Cockburn this season, the Illini have made a boatload of additions. They got three Big 12 transfers: G Terrence Shannon Jr. (Texas Tech), F Matthew Mayer (Baylor), and F Dain Dainja (Baylor). On top of this, they have four freshmen coming in that should play: F Ty Rodgers, G Jayden Epps, G Skyy Clark, and G Sincere Harris, There are plenty of unknowns, but Underwood should be able to coach this team more than any of his other successful squads at Illinois.
Season Prediction: 3rd (21-9, 13-7 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: G Terrence Shannon Jr. (High-level wing, should be great in this system)
Most Underrated Player: F Ty Rodgers (Could easily have a major freshman season, so much versatility)
I think they’ll be a top-three team in the conference. I look forward to mainly covering this team for the site this season, meaning that I’ll be covering the Illini and Big Ten hoops overall.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Last Season: 20-12 (12-8 Big Ten)
This team has plenty of big losses from last season, mainly EJ Liddell and Malaki Branham. But they have a lot of talent with returning players, recruits, and transfers. Chris Holtmann has done a fine job with the Buckeyes, and this season is one where he doesn’t have a real star going into it. They need freshmen and transfers to figure it out quickly, and I think they will.
Season Prediction: 2nd (21-9, 14-6 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: G Sean McNeil (Elite shooter, transfer from WVU)
Most Underrated Player: G Tanner Holden (20 ppg at Wright State last season)
This team has plenty of names, and it’s up to Holtmann to figure it out with this roster. I’m confident he will after a hard non-conference schedule. Their February 23rd matchup versus Illinois could be a huge one for both sides.
Indiana Hoosiers
Last Season: 21-14 (9-11 Big Ten)
I’m buying into the hype, the Hoosiers have a loaded roster in year two for Mike Woodson. They get Jackson-Davis back into the fold, as well as Xavier Johnson, Miller Kopp, Race Thompson, Trey Galloway, and others. They have the deepest roster in the conference, and a lot of young talent coming in (Jalen Hood-Schifino).
Season Prediction: 1st (23-8, 15-5 Big Ten)
Leading Scorer Prediction: F Trayce Jackson-Davis (Another favorite for Big Ten POTY)
Most Underrated Player: F Race Thompson (Elite glue guy)
A six-win improvement in the conference would be large for the Hoosiers, but I think they can do it. I’m simply buying into the hype with this team.
Conference Award Predictions
The list of players that could win awards this season is smaller than it should be, but that’s the reality of the conference this season. Here are my picks:
Player of the Year: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana (Runner-Up: Hunter Dickinson, Michigan)
Defensive Player of the Year: Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois (Runner-Up: Caleb McConnell, Rutgers)
Newcomer of the Year: Tanner Holden, Ohio State (Runner-Up: Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois)
Coach of the Year: Chris Holtmann, Ohio State (Runner-Up: Mike Woodson, Indiana)
The Big Ten likely won’t break their streak of not winning national titles, but it’s another solid year coming for the conference. The unpredictability should make this a fun season to watch and observe.
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