Despite the major roster turnover, Brad Underwood has another preseason-ranked team in 2022-23
It was no surprise that All-American center Kofi Cockburn left for professional basketball after the 2021-22 season, but that doesn’t make it any easier to replace him. The positives from the offseason include a quality recruiting class and a few major transfer additions. The biggest factor for this team will be finding their identity, which will likely end up being much closer to what Underwood has always coached.
Looking at the Illinois Roster
Illinois replaced a group of veterans with a mix of youth and experience. For their recruiting class, they added 4-stars G Skyy Clark (#33 nationally), F Ty Rodgers (#53 nationally), G Jayden Epps (#72 nationally), and 3-star G Sencire Harris (#109 nationally). This class ranked 7th overall and 1st in the Big Ten ahead of Ohio State and Michigan, per 247Sports. As for the ever-evolving transfer portal, the Illini added three key pieces from it, all from the Big 12.
The biggest transfer portal addition is Terrence Shannon Jr., an elite athletic wing from Texas Tech. Shannon was one of the highest-ranked transfers of the off-season. He’ll be a huge factor in the team’s success, especially early in the season with so much youth around him.
If you want championship DNA, you have it with Matthew Mayer, a former Baylor power forward. He didn’t have a great season in 2021-22, but he could return to normal in a new place. The third transfer portal addition was big man Dain Dainja from Baylor, a former 4-star recruit that it never worked out for at Baylor. He’s been on campus for quite some time and will be needed as a presence down low for this group.
As for the rest of the roster, there are three main returning players. First up is Luke Goode, a sophomore guard that had foot surgery following an injury in the scrimmage against Kansas. Without a real timetable listed, it’s unknown how long he’ll be out, but it’s likely that he won’t return until sometime in conference play. Goode is a great defender and makes threes on a regular basis, they’ll certainly miss him. The other two are likely to start on opening night, F Coleman Hawkins and G RJ Melendez.
Both Hawkins and Melendez are possible breakout candidates. Hawkins will be taking on a major role as a versatile big man that they’ll have at the 4 and 5. Melendez is athletic, smart, and has a ton of intangibles for a winning college basketball player. He was incredibly efficient in a limited time last season, I’m looking for him to be a huge x-factor for them.
This roster is the definition of a high-ceiling team. They have a lot of new faces and chemistry will take time to build, but it’s one of the most talented rosters in the country. Underwood and his staff have done an excellent job in keeping the program where it should be despite major losses from the last two seasons. He’s proving that a sustainable program in Champaign at Illinois is possible again.
Non-Conference Schedule
There are some massive early-season challenges for the Illini. But they start off with a slower start, they won’t be playing any high-major teams through their first three games. Illinois hasn’t always had the friendliest rankings when it comes to metrics, but I’ll use KenPom to value and judge their opponents this season regardless. Another great source used is Haslametrics if you’re looking for great college basketball metrics and analytics.
- Nov. 7 – vs. Eastern Illinois (#354 on KenPom)
- Nov. 11 – vs. UMKC (#295 on KenPom)
- Nov. 14 – vs. Monmouth (#250 on KenPom)
- Nov. 18 – vs. UCLA (Vegas Event) (#11 on KenPom)
- Nov. 20 – vs. Baylor OR Virginia (Vegas Event)
- Nov. 25 – vs. Lindenwood (#348 on KenPom)
- Nov. 29 – vs. Syracuse (Big Ten/ACC Challenge) (#54 on KenPom)
- Dec. 6 – vs. Texas (Jimmy V Classic) (#2 on KenPom)
- Dec. 17 – vs. Alabama A&M (#327 on KenPom)
- Dec. 22 – vs. Missouri (Braggin’ Rights) (#41 on KenPom)
- Dec. 29 – vs. Bethune Cookman (#306 on KenPom)
Despite not playing any true road games in non-conference play, the Illini will face some big challenges. They start lightly, but the Vegas Event will tell us a lot about this team, the other three teams in the event are potential National Championship contenders. After Vegas, they’ll play Syracuse in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, which should be fun. But Illinois should be able to handle the Orange, they’ve won back-to-back games in the challenge with wins over Duke and Notre Dame.
Outside of that, the Braggin’ Rights game should be more competitive this season than it was in 2021-22. The Illini put a 88-63 beating on Mizzou, their first Braggin’ Rights win since 2017-18. The Illini should have no problem coming out of this non-conference schedule with a good record. However, the last few teams for Underwood have been notorious for slow starts in certain respects of the game. That is something that will likely happen for this team given the new pieces.
Conference Schedule
- Dec. 2 – at Maryland (#56 on KenPom)
- Dec. 10 – vs. Penn State (#46 on KenPom)
- Jan. 4 – at Northwestern (#70 on KenPom)
- Jan. 7 – vs. Wisconsin (#55 on KenPom)
- Jan. 10 – at Nebraska (#108 on KenPom)
- Jan. 13 – vs. Michigan State (#31 on KenPom)
- Jan. 16 – at Minnesota (#109 on KenPom)
- Jan. 19 – vs. Indiana (#12 on KenPom)
- Jan. 24 – vs. Ohio State (#32 on KenPom)
- Jan. 28 – at Wisconsin
- Jan. 31 – vs. Nebraska
- Feb. 4 – at Iowa (#23 on KenPom)
- Feb. 7 – vs. Minnesota
- Feb. 11 – vs. Rutgers (#50 on KenPom)
- Feb. 14 – at Penn State
- Feb. 18 – at Indiana
- Feb. 23 – vs. Northwestern
- Feb. 26 – at Ohio State
- Mar. 2 – vs. Michigan (#26 on KenPom)
- Mar. 5 – at Purdue (#25 on KenPom)
From the looks of it, the Illini schedule in conference play is relatively easy. The conference is not as good as it has been over the past few seasons and the Illini benefit from only having to play Michigan and Purdue once. It’s still going to be a grind from early January to early March, but this team is built for that, especially if they can get cohesiveness and comfort in November and December. I look for them to finish within the top three or four of the conference again, it’d be a surprise if they didn’t. Make sure to read my Big Ten season preview to get an idea of where the conference is this season.
Projecting the Illinois Rotation
Based on the starting lineup for the exhibition game against Quincy, it looks like Underwood has a feel for how he will start the season with rotations. While at Illinois for the past five seasons prior to this one, Underwood has never been afraid to switch things up and he was tested to do that more than ever last season with the Andre Curbelo injury and other key factors. He’ll likely do that at Illinois this season as well.
Projected Starting Five
- G Skyy Clark
- G Terrence Shannon Jr.
- G RJ Melendez
- F Matthew Mayer
- F Coleman Hawkins
This is the lineup that he rolled out in the exhibition game. Clark was aggressive in handling the ball and isn’t afraid to shoot it. Shannon and Melendez are perfect fits for the middle of the lineup with their versatility. Mayer struggled in that game, I wouldn’t surprised if his role changes quickly. As for Hawkins, they’ll rely on his strengths and versatility to guard multiple positions. If this lineup can make shots and rebound, they will be cooking with gas because their defense should be elite.
Projected Bench Rotation
- F Ty Rodgers
- G Jayden Epps
- C Dain Dainja
- G Sencire Harris
- *G Luke Goode (when healthy, he’ll be either a starter or the 6th/7th man)
The rotation should run about 9 deep when the season begins and can expand to 10 when Goode makes his likely return. The word “versatility” has been used by Underwood all summer and he’s correct, this roster has it in waves. Harris and Rodgers project as dynamic defenders with the ability to handle the ball and guard multiple positions. Epps is a pure shooter, but he’s not left-handed like the recent prototype for shooters on this team (Alfonso Plummer/Adam Miller).
I like this roster and rotation, it gives Underwood and the staff plenty of options for adjustments when they’re needed. It’s likely the most talented roster in the conference, but talent can only take you so far. Illinois isn’t quite as talented as the Arkansas Razorbacks, but they have a similar situation with so many new faces. It’ll be interesting to see how these two schools perform this season with a different model of roster building.
Overall Predictions
I may not be quite as high on this team as others, but I still believe they will have success this season. They’ll benefit from the Big Ten not being as good and their schedule favors them as well.
- Record: 22-9 (13-7 Big Ten)
- 9-2 Non-Conference (Losses to UCLA and Texas)
- 3rd Place in the Big Ten
- Tournament Prediction: 5 seed
- Scoring Leader: Terrence Shannon Jr. (14.5)
- Rebounding Leader: Coleman Hawkins (7.3)
- Assists Leader: Skyy Clark (5.4)
- Steals Leader: Skyy Clark (2.2)
- Breakout Player: Brandon Lieb (!)
Nothing too out of the ordinary with my predictions other than Lieb as a breakout player. I don’t want to go with the usual Hawkins or Melendez pick, and there aren’t many other candidates. If Lieb plays multiple games in normal rotation time and contributes, it may be a good pick. Especially if Dainja goes down or struggles, Lieb could take over the Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk role of last season. I think this will be a major season for Clark, he has a great chance to win Freshman Player of the Year in the conference. I’m also looking for Shannon Jr. to show why he is an elite overall player.
I’m excited to cover this team for the site this season, it’s going to be another fun five months of basketball in Champaign. The University of Illinois is on fire with success in both football and basketball, at last.
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