The NBA season tips off tonight with two marquee matchups. Gear up for the season with a few future bets to add to your slips.
If you are a massive NBA fan, whether you enjoy betting, or not, I truly believe that look-ahead conversations and future hypotheticals are almost as enjoyable as actually watching the action. This blog won’t be a full breakdown of my 2022-23 thoughts, but I figured I’d give a little snippet of some opinions that I’ve generated on a few teams ahead of tonight’s tip off. Stay tuned for daily plays on the Bulls, and also consistent thoughts and bets on the NBA as a whole throughout the entire season!
Philadelphia 76ers Over 50.5 Wins
Many people have mixed thoughts on this Philly team that finished with 51 wins one season ago, but I am a believer in this upcoming year from a handful of different standpoints.
The question marks with James Harden are certainly warranted, and while I don’t believe we will see the return of MVP-level James Harden given some of the rule changes that have happened over the past seasons, I do believe, with more repetitions and continuity with this roster following the midseason trade last year, we will see a more effective and consistent James Harden.
In Joel Embiid’s case, after falling short in MVP voting to Nikola Jokic in back-to-back years, I firmly believe that contending for that award is on his list of goals for the season, and if he is truly in that conversation this team should be a 50-plus win team.
Beyond the stars, I really love the possibility of the depth of this team improving. The leading candidate for improvement, and if achieved could be season-changing improvement, is Tyrese Maxey. Maxey finished 6th in last year’s “Most Improved Player” voting, and is currently listed as the second favorite on most sportsbooks to win the award this year, behind only Anthony Edwards. If he goes to another level, he may elevate to a household name, but could also tilt the East to Philly’s favor.
To close things out, adding PJ Tucker in the offseason, and a potential boost in production from Matisse Thybulle and the rest of the supporting cast would only make this team deeper and tougher to play on a nightly basis. Give me the over for the season, and give me this team to have a serious chance to contend for the 1-seed in the East.
Cleveland Cavaliers Under 47.5 Wins
Cleveland was the clear front-runner for most improved and most surprising team last year, and while I by no means am saying they revert back to a losing team, I am taking a bit of a stance against the public with this one.
According to DraftKings bet tracker, as of last week, 84% of the bets on this market are to the over. At 44-38 one season ago, and now having added Donovan Mitchell to the mix, you would on paper expect Cleveland to take more than a four-win jump.
I really love what they are building overall with the young talent that they have assembled, but at the end of the day, I think their could be some offensive growing pains in the early portions of this season. Defensively, their interior with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen is really stout, but on the perimeter, if they face guards that can create their own shot on the outside, their defense could face some struggles with the personnel that they have in Mitchell, Darius Garland and Ricky Rubio.
I put them in a similar position as they were in last year with 44 or 45 wins, and more than likely in the six to eight seed range when it’s all said and done, but the future is incredibly bright.
Portland Trail Blazers Over 39.5 Wins
I can understand if you are surprised to see this play on my card, as the Blazers were a total afterthought last season with Damian Lillard sidelined for 53 games due to injury.
I’ll start with Lillard and work my way down here, but I have strong thoughts on a huge bounceback season for Lillard. Last year marked the first time in his career in which he played in less than 66 games throughout the season, and with re-commitment at least for the upcoming couple of seasons in Portland, I fully expect him to be a hell-bent man on a mission to not only be a winning team, but shock everyone and give this team a shot at playing in the postseason.
That may be a tall order, but with a potentially improved, yet under the radar supporting cast, I think this team will be really fun to watch. The supporting cast includes guys that either took massive jumps recently, or new faces that don’t quite get as much respect as they should in the NBA.
The leading candidate that could continue to see improvement, is Anfernee Simons, who in his fourth year, elevated from a roughly eight point per game scorer, to 17.3 in Lillard’s absence. In addition to Simons progression, you have Josh Hart who came over midseason last year and played only 13 games with this team, but across 54 games with both Portland and New Orleans averaged 14.9 points per game.
The offseason additions include Jerami Grant, who if you haven’t been paying attention to Detroit over the past two seasons, has elevated to a 20 point per game scorer in his own right. This team will certainly have it’s flaws, and shouldn’t be looked at as a true contender, but with a highly motivated Lillard, and a multitude of other scoring options at the guard and wing positions, I think this offense can be really effective and put this team at 41 or 42 wins this season. Give me the over and give me a sprinkle on Lillard to win MVP as well while you’re at it.
Detroit Pistons Over 29.5 Wins
The Detroit Pistons head into 2022 with arguably the most buzz surrounding their team that we have seen in recent memory. While I firmly believe this team is still one year away from playoff contention, I believe we will start to see the beginning of a turn in culture over in Detroit.
The easy points for this argument lie at the top with Cade Cunningham entering year two of his career. I am buying plenty of stock in him to elevate not only his play, but the team’s play on a nightly basis. Cunningham finished the season with All-Rookie honors, averaging 17.4 points per game and over five rebounds and assists to go along with it on the side. I’m not sure how much these numbers will jump here in year two, but I do firmly believe that his “game-management” and leadership as a point guard will only improve.
Jaden Ivey’s (preseason highlights) production as a rookie remains to be seen, but I took a piece of his odds to win Rookie of the Year, and even if he falls short of those honors, the energy and athleticism that he brings can only boost the firepower of this young team. Utilizing him off-ball as a compliment to Cunningham is something that I am really excited to see, and should allow him to find his spots to execute within the offense.
To shore up the loss of the aforementioned Jerami Grant, Detroit brought in Bojan Bogdanovic from Utah, a roughly 18 point per game scorer in his own right. In addition to the key pieces on this team, I also love the possibility of a few of their young role players to take a jump as well including, Seddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart, and Killian Hayes.
Give me a Pistons team that finished eighth in the league against the spread one year ago, to translate some of those close losses into wins. I’ve got this team grabbing 35 wins, and taking a nice leap into the playoffs in 2023-24.
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