Adbert Alzolay has been an excellent fit for the Chicago Cubs in the closer role out of the bullpen. Can Alzolay fill that role for the future?
Adbert Alzolay has been the Chicago Cubs primary closer in the 2023 season. Alzolay has converted sixteen of seventeen save opportunities this year, converting his last twelve consecutively. The fifth-year pitcher has become a fan favorite for the team, with his ability to shut the door in the ninth inning and his passionate celebrations. Can Adbert Alzolay become the Cubs closer for the long term though?
Alzolay’s twelve consecutive save conversions are the most for a Cub since Craig Kimbrel in 2021 when the then Cubs closer converted sixteen opportunities in a row. Adbert Alzolay’s current save streak is the best in the MLB right now. The Venezuelan native has certainly benefitted from a move to the bullpen where he can operate with more potency in a smaller sample size.
Alzolay struggled earlier in his career though for the Cubs as a starting pitcher especially in 2021. The results were less than savory. Alzolay appeared in 29 games with 21 starts, finishing the year with a 5-13 record and 4.58 ERA while surrendering 25 home-runs on an ERA+ of 92. Alzolay struggled mightily against left-handed hitters as well, ranking as one of the worst pitchers in the league in those pitching categories.
Adbert Alzolay still shows some discrepancies in his splits against left-handed hitting this year which still raises some concerns about him in high leverage save situations. The Cubs closer is elite against right-handed hitters, boasting a 1.40 ERA and .204 opponent batting average in 32.1 innings pitched. Alzolay against lefty hitters this year though has a 4.03 ERA and .240 opponent batting average in 20.1 innings.
It is natural of course for a right-handed pitcher to fair worse against the opposite side of the plate but Alzolay has historically been substandard in this area. To play devils advocate here though: short relievers typically see their mistakes amplified due to the nature of their position and maybe Adbert Alzolay has taken steps forward this year with some bad luck. Alzolay’s expected outcome stats seem to support this as well.
Baseball Savant explains thoroughly the purpose and utility behind expected outcome statistics:
“Expected Outcome stats help to remove defense and ballpark from the equation to express the skill shown at the moment of batted ball contact. By looking at the exit velocity and launch angle of each batted ball, a Hit Probability is assigned based on the outcomes of comparable historic balls in play. By accumulating the expected outcomes of each batted ball with actual strikeouts, walks and hit by pitches, Expected Batting Average (xBA), Expected Slugging (xSLG), and (most importantly) Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) tell the story of a player’s season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes.”
Alzolay finds himself in elite company in this statistical category specifically in expected slugging (xSLG), weighted on-based average (WOBA) and weighted expected on-base average (xwOBA) where he is in the 90th percentile and higher in the MLB. Hitters from both sides of the plate are not making good contact off of Alzolay’s pitches particularly against his slider and sinker with the slider being his most used and effective pitch. The advanced stats support Alzolay’s dominance in his new role as Cubs closer.
Alzolay will be tested in these final two months of the season with the Cubs in the midst of a division and Wild Card race in the National League. If Adbert Alzolay plans on being the closer for this storied club, the twenty-eight year old will have to come up big when the lights are shining brightest and the pressure is the heaviest.
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