This week, we’re examining potential first round playoff match-ups for the Chicago Bulls, as the top four teams in the East appear to be set. Yesterday, we looked at the Boston Celtics, and today, we’ll check-in on an old friend and his impressive supporting cast:
Miami Heat
Despite a recent intense, courtside confrontation with head coach Erik Spoelstra, former Bull Jimmy Butler has put together another all-star season and has helped guide the Heat to an East-leading 48-28 record.
That mark is even more impressive when considering how short-handed they’ve been; Butler and Bam Adebayo will both finish with less than 60 games played, while Kyle Lowry missed several weeks due to a personal matter.
Miami went through a rough stretch recently, dropping four straight, including losses to short-handed Philadelphia (no Embiid or Harden) and Golden State (no Curry, Thompson, or Green), but bounced back with a win at home Monday against Sacramento.
Chicago has dropped all three contests against the Heat this season, including a 112-99 loss in Miami on February 28. Zach LaVine went for 22 points, while DeMar DeRozan and Ayo Dosumno each tallied 18, with the Bulls shooting just 7-29 on 3FG. Tyler Herro poured in 20 off the bench for the Heat on 7-13 shooting.
Miami is a middling scoring unit, ranking 12th in offensive rating and relying on a committee approach.
Butler leads them in scoring at 21.1 points per game, but Herro (20.8), Adebayo (19.1), and Lowry (13.1) also have moments controlling the offense. The Heat attempt 35.7 3FG per game, which ranks 14th in the league, but convert at the best rate in the Association at 37.4%, and the Bulls would have a handful of guys (Lowry, Herro, PJ Tucker, Duncan Robinson, etc.) to run off the line.
Herro is having a breakout season in his third year and currently sits as a heavy betting favorite for the 6th Man of the Year award. He’ll be relied upon for crunch time scoring in the postseason, as Herro leads Miami with 52 points in clutch situations (score within five points in final five minutes) so far this season. Chicago is fortunate to have multiple options, including Dosunmo and Alex Caruso, to throw at him.
The Heat are a force on the other end, ranking fifth in defensive rating at 108.1. They sit 16th in steals and dead last in blocks, but opponents shoot just 44.6% against them, and no team in the league allows few points in the paint per game at 41.0.
The Bulls don’t find the paint very often anyways, getting 14.8% of their points in the mid-range, the highest mark in the league. Chicago might be successful finding some soft spots in Miami’s defense, areas they actually prefer to operate in, as the Heat are about league average when it comes to defending 2-point shots overall.
Adebayo is the key to the Heat’s stingy defense and again finds himself in the conversation for Defensive Player of the Year. At 6’9” and 255 pounds, he’s one of the most versatile defenders in the league, strong enough to guard at a high level in the post, yet also agile and quick enough to switch on the perimeter. He leads the team with a defensive rating of 104.4 and has the largest net rating difference (5.1) between his on-court (7.3) and off-court (2.2) totals.
The Bulls would be wise to keep Adebayo out of as much of their offensive action as possible. Hopefully, Nikola Vucevic would be viewed as threatening enough to pull him away from the basket and keep him occupied. Although Vucevic is shooting just 31.6% from 3FG overall this year, he appears to have found his stroke this month, shooting 37.3% from deep in March.
The Bulls play Miami for a fourth and final time at home on Saturday, and pulling out a win could go a long way towards their confidence if they draw the Heat in a first round series.
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