Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson has struggled to find consistent results at the plate in recent seasons. This past winter, he underwent core surgery to address a lingering issue that had been contributing to his performance. Despite entering 2025 with a clean bill of health, and even trying out the newly introduced torpedo bat, Swanson has been sluggish out of the gate.
On the surface, Swanson’s .177/.233/.344 slash line over 104 plate appearances is no longer just an early-season blip, rather it’s becoming a sample size worth paying attention to. Looking further into that, there are some advanced metrics that are pretty telling as well.
Digging into the metrics of Dansby Swanson’s slow start
According to Baseball Savant, Swanson is excelling in categories such as as average exit velocity (91.7 – 79th percentile), hard hit percentage (52.9 – 87th percentile), and squared up percentage (30.1 – 80th percentile). However, his strikeout percentage (28.8 – 17th percentile), whiff percentage (31.7 – 16th percentile), and base on balls percentage (5.8 – 23rd percentile) are all in the bottom quarter of the league.
Looking further, Swanson is putting the ball in the air a ton this year, and to the wrong parts of the field. Baseball Savant has Swanson hitting the ball in the air a career high 63.2% of the time this year, with 27.9% of these balls going to center field, 19.1% to right field, and 16.2% to left field. All of this translates to a lot of hard hit fly outs to the largest part of the field.
To make matters worse, when Swanson is not recording a fly out, he is striking out a career worst clip of 28.8%. While Baseball Savant has his zone contact percentage (79) and chase percentage (25.3) within normal limits throughout his career, one major change has been his ability to make fight off pitches outside of the zone. This year he is making contact on balls outside of the strike zone just 32.6% of the time, whereas historically he is at 53.6%.
Taken together, the numbers paint a clear picture of Swanson’s early-season struggles. While he’s hitting the ball hard and squaring it up at impressive rates, his high fly ball percentage, especially to the deepest parts of the field, is minimizing results. Pair that with a spike in strikeouts and a steep drop in his ability to battle off pitches outside the zone, and it’s easy to see why the production hasn’t followed.
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