The Chicago Cubs bullpen destroyed the team’s chances of making the playoffs. It’s really (almost) as simple as that.
Using FanGraphs WAR, the 2024 bullpen ranked 20th in MLB. They were 22nd Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Average metric. By July 1, the bullpen had blown 17 saves and had a 4.32 ERA. Not coincidentally, also by July 1, the Cubs were 8 games below .500.
Chicago Cubs Bullpen, Almost Historically Bad
The first-half Cubs bullpen was almost historically bad and it gut-punched the momentum out of the team, putting Chicago in a giant hole from which they couldn’t emerge. And while manager Craig Counsell and staff did manage to bring the bullpen around and some young arms broke through as assets with high potential, the 2024 relief corps, overall, ranked among the worst in the league.
Writer Eno Sarris, in a recent piece for The Athletic, identified the Cubs bullpen as the team’s “biggest roster hole.”
Per Sarris:
“FanGraphs projects only four bullpens to be worse than the Cubs’ pen in 2025. Young Porter Hodge and Nate Pearson have the stuff to dominate, and public projection systems may be missing that point. Jordan Rosenblum’s Stuff-driven projections have them a quarter-run better than the Steamer projections on FanGraphs do, at least. That said, they don’t come with much of a major-league track record and have 12 career saves between them. They both also throw right-handed.”
A Path To Repair
Sarris suggests that the Cubs need to sign a quality closer, perhaps the San Diego Padres’ Tanner Scott, to tighten up a back end of the bullpen that seemed to constantly fail to shut things down.
Budget-wise, the Cubs could certainly afford to make that kind of acquisition. The team cleared out a ton of money by trading Cody Bellinger and, by most accounts, has between $40 and $50 million to work with before hitting the luxury tax cap.
The 30-year-old Scott, by media estimation, could be in for a four-year deal worth between $56 and $80 million, depending on the source. Even the low end of that estimation, however, seems more than the frugal and conservative Cubs would be willing to spend on a closer. Making such a deal would be something totally not in character with how the front office handles its business, especially when it comes to bullpen arms.
…And Without Tanner Scott?
There are other options out there, beyond Scott. Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez, and Kirby Yates are also still available via free agency. There’s also the possibility of a high-profile trade for a shutdown closer. The Cubs have reportedly been very active in pursuing trades this offseason, although they haven’t had a lot of success thus far in closing the deals.
The team DID pick up the Cleveland Guardians’ Eli Morgan in a steal of a trade. They also signed free agent lefty Caleb Thielbar to a one-year deal.
Those additions will help the bullpen in that middle part of the game, after the starter leaves and before a closer would step in. But, still, the team has no closer beyond the young and relatively unproven Porter Hodge.
That won’t do if the goal is to turn the Cubs into a legit post-season team. More work is needed.
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