The Chicago Cubs are headed into the 2025 season with a lot on the line.
The team has flat-out declared themselves to be “all in” when it comes to making the postseason. And, while that may be the objective of every team in baseball, the Cubs made a ton of moves this offseason to push that narrative. If they fall short of that goal, figurative heads will roll.
The trade for free agency-bound Kyle Tucker of the Houston Astros will hit especially heavy if the team doesn’t achieve its goal. To bring in the multi-tool right fielder– for likely one season– they had to part with two major league assets in Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski, along with top prospect Cam Smith.
Bad Days Ahead For Two Key Pitchers
On paper, Chicago looks solid and deep at just about every position, but all it takes is a down year or two to bring the entire plan toppling down.
Jake Misener of Cubbies Crib feels that two top Cubs pitchers, specifically, are due for a fall from grace this season– Javier Assad and Porter Hodge.
Is Javier Assad Due For A Fall?
Assad, the 27-year-old right-hander from Mexico, is dealing with injury early in this spring training, but he’s expected to be the front-runner for the fifth spot in the Cubs’ starting rotation.
With a 3.73 ERA in 29 games and 147 innings, he’s earned first dibs on that gig.
However, there’ve been doubts about Assad’s overall ability as a full-time starter since he first came into the league and some have slated him for long relief duty despite his solid work in three years with the team.
Per Misener:
“So why is he a prime regression candidate? A closer look at the numbers throws up all kinds of red flags. A 1.97 K/BB ratio isn’t sustainable at the big-league level. His ERA was nearly a full run better than his FIP (4.64) and his chase and whiff rates ranked near the bottom of all eligible pitchers. There’s just not a lot of margin for error with Assad and one has to think that, at some point, things are going to level off and he’ll stop out-performing the peripherals.”
Assad will get his chance to keep the job he earned last year, but many are banking against his ability to continue putting up solid numbers.
A Sophomore Curse For Porter Hodge?
Hodge was a surprising revelation last season, notching a 1.88 ERA in 43 innings and earning status as the de facto closer on an out-of-contention Cubs team. He did this as a relatively green 23-year-old with just 15.2 innings of Triple-A experience.
Misener, however, feels that numbers point to serious regression this coming season from the sophomore:
“Hodge worked to a 1.88 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in 43 appearances, overcoming 4.0 BB/9 thanks, in part, to a penchant for punchouts (he struck out nearly 11 batters per nine). Control will make or break him this year. The stuff definitely plays, but he’ll need to cut down on the free passes to keep the self-inflicted damage in check, especially in a high-leverage role.”
Hodge will have the pressure eased a bit by working as setup man to newcomer Ryan Pressly, but it’s hard to see him being as dominant this year as he was in the second half of last year.
Time will tell who stays true to form, who overachieves, and who underachieves in this 2025 campaign. However, Assad and Hodge are key components to the Cubs’ success and the hope is that critics are wrong about downward turns this season.
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