What are the real plans for the Chicago Cubs this offseason?
Recent rumors and reports have linked the Chicago Cubs to All-Star Slugger Pete Alonso as one of their top focuses for this upcoming free agency period. However, the money that is needed to sign a name like Alonso, would and should be spent on some of the top names in the starting pitching market.
With long time Chicago Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks (who spent his entire 11y career with the club) (link internal article) possibly making his last start for squad on Sept. 28th, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will need a good solid veteran and top of the rotation starter to replace him and help lock down the rotation.
A top-of-the-line starter would really help round out and solidify an already top of the line rotation. Pairing a high-end starter with top-of-the-line talents like Justin Steele and rookie phenom Shota Imanaga would immediately put the Chicago Cubs rotation as one of the best in the NL. While also pairing great options for the 4th and 5th spots like Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon along with depth pieces.
The money needed to sign a star like Pete Alonso would cost somewhere north of 200M for most likely 8-10 years. In his recent press conference with the media, GM Jed Hoyer expressed their need for a star caliber player (link tweet) which would fit the description of someone like Pete Alonso. In reality though, is that really what the Chicago Cubs need to put them over the top? I don’t think so, the need for them starting pitching and having a true number 1 Ace is really what this team is missing.
The situation with Cody Bellinger having his “opt-out” for this year also plays a factor and further muddies the situation on what to do. Bellinger if he decides to stay would most likely be the 1st baseman for the team since the emergence of the up-and-coming star in Pete-Crow Armstrong. Bellinger has split his time between the OF and 1st base this past season playing just 22 games over at 1st this season (baseball reference) l, while the bulk of the duties was filled by Micheal Bush (142 games).
So, as I stated above the money, I feel it will take to sign a star like Pete Alonso will come north of 200M and be somewhere at 8-10 years. That length and value as I said, should be allocated to some of the top Starting Pitchers on the market. Some of the big names in that department to enter free agency this upcoming period are Corbin Burnes (30), Blake Snell (if he opts-out, 32), Max Fried (31), Jack Flaherty (29), Jordan Montgomery (32), and Shane Bieber (30).
The odds the Chicago Cubs land a name like a Burnes, or a Snell are high being they’re a historic franchise, they’re a big market team who are willing to open the purse up, and it’s a competitive division which also would strike interest in any free agent. Those guys would command that 200M+ contract the Chicago Cubs are saying they’re willing to give out.
Who should the Chicago Cubs target for Starting Pitching?
Corbin Burnes
Corbin Burnes, 30, is most likely the top Free Agent, but definitely the top free agent starting pitcher on the market for the 2024-2025 free agency period. A former Cy Young winner for the Brewers in 2021, Burnes in his walk year finished the year going: 15-9 with a 2.92 era, starting all 32 of his games, 194.1 IP, 48 BBs, 181 Ks, and a 1.096 WHIP. A contract for Burnes will probably be similar that of Zack Wheeler (3y-126M) or Aaron Nola (7y- 172M) who are the most recent starting pitchers to be given out long-term and lucrative contracts.
I think at the talent level Corbin Burnes is and how well he has thrown over the past few years on top of his Cy Young, he will get more than Nola’s contract somewhere around 180-200M, but he would most likely make the same AAV (average annual value) as Zack Wheeler (42M). And of course, the current manager of the Cubs is Craig Counsell who was Burnes’ manager during his tenure with the club.
Shane Bieber
Bieber, 30, entered this 2024 campaign hoping to pitch well enough, like pitchers in a contract year do to get his “bag” so to speak. Sadly, that didn’t come to fruition. Bieber’s 2024 campaign was cut short just after 2 starts when he suffered Tommy John surgery. Teams will most likely be hesitant to sign a guy who is coming off a major injury like TJ surgery.
However, this could be a blessing in disguise for the Chicago Cubs. They probably could get Bieber at a much more discounted rate than you would have if he pitched a full season. The Chicago Cubs also don’t have to dish out a 5–7-year deal worth 140M+, even though that’s what someone like commands. He is a Cy young winner after all, even though that came in the shorten 2020 season, that accolade is still next to his name.
So far in his 7y career in the big leagues Shane Bieber has proven to be a top-of-the-line starter, if not at the very least a solid number 2 option for any ball club. He’s amassed a record of 62-32 with a 3.22 era, which are the same exact career numbers as Corbin Burnes (60-36 3.19 era).
The Chicago Cubs would be getting a Cy Young level pitcher at the fraction of the cost, someone coming off a major injury looking to “prove it” and “bounce back” to reassert his dominance as one of the top Starters in the whole league, and just a tremendous level of upside and a veteran pitcher to help with the young guys mentioned above. I believe you could give him a 4y deal because of the injury, and then you add in 2 or 3 club/player options to total it out to what he would’ve gotten if he was healthy.
Currently Bieber is making 13.125M, so you figure he’s owed (even with missing this year) a pay increase of at least 5M. A deal that comes to mind that would work in this case, and I’m not comparing the talent level at all, just a similar deal that could suite this situation. Taijuan Walker back in 2023 got a 4y-72M dollar contract from the Philadelphia Phillies and he’s nowhere near that pitcher Shane Bieber is or has been.
If you give Bieber the same length (4 years) and bump the salary to 100M, that way he’s making 20M a year, then if you go with let’s say 3 club/player options at 20M a year the contract would total out to 7y-140M.
As for the other names listed, they would be great additions, but they’re not the big supers star names like a Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber. And with Blake Snell it would be great to have him, especially with a full spring training. However, it’s all dependent on whether he opts out of his deal or not.
Whoever the star turns out to be the money to be spent this offseason should be heavily focused on the starting rotation for the Chicago Cubs.
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