The Chicago Cubs made their first significant move this offseason when they signed free agent pitcher Matthew Boyd to a two-year, $29 million deal.
Adding Boyd to a rotation that already had Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Javier Assad would become the first step in what the Cubs front office said would be an “all in” philosophy when it came to making the playoffs this coming 2025 season.
Matthew Boyd’s Comeback
The soon-to-be 34-year-old lefty came back from Tommy John surgery with a vengeance late last season, posting a 2.72 ERA in eight regular season starts for the Cleveland Guardians, averaging nearly five innings per appearance. He also dazzled in the playoffs, giving up just one earned run in 11.2 innings versus the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees.
Boyd’s showings in the final months of 2024 play were enough to get him the two-year deal with the Cubs as a calculated gamble from the usually gambling-averse Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer.
The Calculated Risk
Michael Canter of Cubs Insider believes that the gamble will pay off and that Boyd could very well go on to be a surprise breakout star for the Cubs this season.
At the very least, Boyd represents a significant upgrade from last year’s middle-of-rotation presence, Kyle Hendricks.
Per Canter:
“From his debut on August 13 to the end of the season, Boyd’s 0.9 WAR led Cleveland’s pitching staff. That’s 3.6 WAR over 32 starts when scaled across a full season, a mark that would have fallen between Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi for ninth among AL pitchers. Boyd replaces Kyle Hendricks, who pitched to a 4.14 ERA across 41.1 innings after August 15 to close out his career with the Cubs.
Boyd’s peripheral numbers were substantially better than Hendricks’s, including his 3.10 xERA and 27.7% whiff rate. The lefty’s scant 0.9 HR/9 allowed was much better than Imanaga (1.40) and trailed only Justin Steele (.80) among the Cubs’ 2024 starters. Those numbers are much better than his career norms, and he posted them while pitching his home games in a stadium with the 11th-highest home run park factor in MLB (106). Wrigley Field was a pitcher-friendly ballpark last year, ranking 26th in HR factor (85), but no guarantee exists that this summer’s weather will follow suit.”
What The Chicago Cubs Need From Boyd
A lot of the conjecture on Boyd and his status as an asset to the Cubs’s rotation hinges on his durability and his ability to contribute for at least most of the season. It’s worth noting that not even pitching coach Tommy Hottovy is expecting a full workload from the oft-injured veteran pitcher. Optimistic estimates would place Boyd’s hopeful output at 120 innings this coming season.
“There’s definitely some risk/reward there,: Hottovy said in a recent interview on 670 The Score in Chicago. “If we’re sitting here today and we say, ‘Matt Boyd throws 120 innings of really good baseball,’ I think we’d all be really happy about that. Anything above that would be great.”
Boyd has thrown a combined 202.2 innings over the last four seasons and hasn’t surpassed 100+ innings thrown in a single season since 2019. The 2023 Tommy John surgery is hoped to stabilize the 10-year veteran’s arm.
The upside on Boyd, however, is potentially tremendous, especially if his late-2024 showing is an indication of where he’s now at, both physically and mentally.
His fastball/changeup/sinker/slider repertoire should work exceedingly well in Chicago, with an elite-level defense behind him and a pitching-smart duo of Hottovy and manager Craig Counsell overseeing his efforts. A repaired bullpen, which includes potential spot starters Colin Rea, Jordan Wicks, Nate Pearson, and Cody Poteet should also serve to take some of the workload off him, especially later in the season.
All in all, it would appear that Boyd is, indeed, a candidate for a big-time, full-season comeback. He just has to stay healthy– but that’s never been a guarantee for him.
Chicago Cubs, Jed Hoyer take big “win now” gamble on 2025
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