The Chicago Cubs gave first baseman Michael Busch a huge vote of confidence this offseason when they traded away Cody Bellinger and minor leaguer Matt Mervis.
The front office moves made the 27-year-old Busch the one and only first baseman anywhere near the top levels of the organization.
The former Los Angeles Dodgers prospect came over to the Cubs in January of 2024, along with reliever Yency Almonte, for prospects Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope. In his rookie year– and his first full year playing first base– Busch performed well, even earning some Rookie of the Year attention. He would hit 21 home runs with 65 RBIs and 28 doubles, finishing the season with a 2.8 WAR.
The vote of confidence in making him THE first baseman, without a safety net, though, may come back to bite the Cubs.
A Chicago Cubs Bust?
Injury, of course, is always a possibility. There’s also a significant chance that Busch will regress rather than progress in his sophomore year in the majors.
Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report is one of those people who feel that the left-handed hitting first baseman is a prime candidate to be a bust in 2025.
Per Reuter:
“Busch had one of the largest gaps between batting average (.248) and expected batting average (.217, 8th percentile) of any qualified hitter. A strong 11.1 percent walk rate does give him a solid offensive foundation, but his middling batted-ball data points to some likely regression at the plate, and it already started to catch up with him as he hit .216/.303/.402 in 231 plate appearances after the All-Star break last year.”
What A Failed Michael Busch Would Mean
The ramifications of Busch falling flat this season would be dire. There is, pretty much literally, nobody who can take his spot if he were to fail. The Cubs would have to limp through the rest of 2025 with either a utility man like Jon Berti filling that spot or 21-year-old minor league call-up Moises Ballesteros moving from catcher to try his hand at first.
The Cubs, however, have great confidence in Busch’s abilities. The one concern they had going into the 2024 campaign was regarding his defensive ability as a converted third baseman/second baseman. Busch worked his way into removing that concern.
“We really see Michael as a Gold Glove first baseman,” president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said in an interview on 670 The Score. “His versatility is great, but he made real strides at first. I thought after the first month of the season, he was fantastic at first. And that’s certainly how we’re seeing him.”
Trader’s Remorse?
If Busch were to flat-line in 2025, the trade of 2024 would look like a complete fail for the Cubs organization. The two prospects dealt for Busch are becoming true assets in the Dodgers’ farm system.
The 20-year-old southpaw pitcher Ferris won the Dodgers’ Branch Rickey Minor League Pitcher of the Year award last season. He also earned recognition as the fifth best left-handed pitching prospect, per MLB.com, and no. 78 on the Top 100 prospects list.
20-year-old outfielder Zyhir Hope, meanwhile, has been getting rave reviews as one of the Dodgers’ fastest rising prospects (no. 75 of the top 100 overall, per MLB.com) and predicted by MLB Pipeline to be the organization’s top prospect in 2027, touted as “the most dynamic player in the Arizona Fall League.”
The pressure will definitely be on Busch this season and, by extension, on the Cubs for having had such supreme confidence in him.
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