The Chicago Cubs are still on the lookout for starting pitching and may be in the running for a Japanese free agent starting pitcher.
No, that free agent pitcher in question isn’t Roki Sasaki. The team DID have a meeting with the 23-year-old Japanese pitching sensation, but aren’t considered front runners in acquiring his services as he appears more interested in a West Coast team such as the Dodgers or Padres.
The Other Japanese Pitching Free Agent
Behind the Sasaki caravan, though, is lefty Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who has garnered relatively little attention in comparison to his countryman.
Chicago, however, appears to be one of the teams showing interest in the more modestly talented pitcher.
According to a social media post by Jon Becker, the self-described “FanGraphs contracts guy and creator of the FA Matrix,” a Japanese media post says that Ogasawara has a handful of likely suitors, including the Cubs.
The Chicago Cubs Are Interested
“Extremely rough work by google translate here,” Becker wrote on Bluesky, “but it looks like Shinnosuke Ogasawara isn’t expecting to sign until the New Year, and that ten or so teams are interested, including the Cubs and Mets.”
The nine-year veteran of the Chunichi Dragons of the Nippon Professional Baseball league is not an overwhelming talent like Sasaki or Yoshinobu Yamamoto before him. He’s not even as showy-impressive as Shota Imanaga, who the Cubs signed last offseason to 4-year , $53,000,000 contract. Ogasawara is really more solid than anything else, posting an ERA in the high 2s to high 3s over the last four seasons.
According to Baseball America, he possesses a fast ball that sits at 89-91 mph and can top out at 94, with a passable changeup and a “fringy” slider. Leaning on guile and savvy to be effective, he “relies on inducing weak contact rather than swings and misses.”
Baseball America projects him to be fifth starter or a “swing man” in the bullpen.
The Cost And The Worth
In the case of the Cubs, that swing man option may actually be more attractive than a run as a back-of-rotation starter. For a bullpen lacking some left-handed depth, juxtaposed against a starting five with three lefties, Ogasawara would provide some much-needed versatility.
MLB Trade Rumors has projected the 27-year-old to get a 2-year, $12 million deal on the open market. That’s not a bad bargain at all for a quality long reliever/spot starter.
Per MLBTradeRumors.com:
“Based on their track records, Ogasawara should come in south of Imanaga’s $53MM guarantee by a fair margin. It only takes one team to come in with a surprising offer, and it wouldn’t be all that surprising to learn that a club think Ogasawara’s youth and track record is something that can be molded into a fourth starter against MLB lineups. That said, there’s no real track record for someone coming off a 13-14% strikeout rate getting paid decent money by MLB clubs…A two- or three-year deal with a modest AAV feels perfectly plausible, but some clubs may be offput entirely by this year’s drop in punchouts and shy away entirely.”
Signing him would also give the Cubs some insurance in case a starter falters or gets injured. Over the long haul, he could even factor into a Japanese-style 6-man rotation to keep arms fresh for a late season run at a playoff spot.
Follow me on Twitter at @boxing_tribune, and follow us @ChiCitySports23. You can also reach out to Paul Magno via email at paulmagno@theboxingtribune.com.
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