The Chicago Cubs have had a fantastic offseason and could complete it by signing Alex Bregman.
The Cubs were recently reported to have offered Bregman a four-year contract with an average annual value of around $30 million.
Since that report dropped, rumors have been swirling that if Bregman is signed, it is almost a guarantee that the Cubs will trade away their Gold Glove second baseman Nico Hoerner to free up a spot for top prospect Matt Shaw to see playing time.
Why trading away Hoerner would not make sense for the Chicago Cubs
Trading away Hoerner if the Cubs signed Bregman would deplete the Cubs roster of a valuable player who has been a stable force in their lineup. Hoerner is a career .278 hitter and has a career OBP of .338, which makes him one of the better bat-to-ball hitters in baseball. Bregman is the same type of hitter as Hoerner but brings a little more pop, with a career slugging percentage of .483 compared to Hoerner’s .381.
Hoerner was the Cubs leader in stolen bases last season, swiping 31 bags and only caught 6 times. Baseball Savant has Hoerner in the 95th percentile for his base running value. Pete Crow-Armstrong was second on the Cubs with 27 stolen bases, but having Hoerner’s speed is all too valuable for the Cubs since they added Kyle Tucker to their lineup. The 27-year-old is one of the better second basemen in all of baseball, ranking in the 95th percentile for his range (11) and having a defensive run saved of 4.
The potential to have Bregman and Hoerner in the lineup would be valuable for the Cubs, with both Bregman and Hoerner able to get on base for Tucker and Seiya Suzuki to drive them in. If the Cubs were to sign Bregman, he could slot into the two-hole and push everyone else down, which would have Hoerner as the 7th hitter.
Trading Hoerner away and relying on Matt Shaw to fill his shoes is a big ask for someone who has not played one MLB game. Hoerner is a proven major league player who will give you Gold Glove defense and be a consistent hitter in the lineup. Shaw could prove to be all those things, but he still has to prove, he can adjust to major-league pitching.
Hoerner could miss Opening Day
Sep 29, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz (44) slides into second base to steal against Chicago Cubs second base Nico Hoerner (2) during the eighth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images
Hoerner is recovering from off-season surgery and is currently undergoing a throwing and hitting program to get him ready for spring training. The goal is to slowly progress with Hoerner and see how well he holds up and if he’ll be ready to go for spring training and Opening Day.
If Hoerner is not ready to go, Shaw, plus other additions to the Cubs bench, like Jon Berti, will be key parts of the Cubs offense and defense until Hoerner returns. Even if Bregman is thrown in the acquisition, that will still be the case. Shaw does need everyday at-bats, but Hoerner does as well, and with Hoerner being the proven veteran, he will get priority over Shaw.
Keeping the homegrown talent
Hoerner is currently under a team-friendly contract with making a total of $23.5 million for the next two seasons, and he shouldn’t just be given away.
There should be no rush to trade Hoerner, given what he brings to the Cubs and what he could help them do this season.
Pairing him with Tucker, Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, and possibly Bregman would give the Cubs one of the better lineups in Major League Baseball.
Chicago Cubs NL rival already eyed as landing spot for potential free agent Kyle Tucker
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