This college football Saturday 10/22 closes out with some great games in primetime and here are the best bets.
College football gambling can be a grind especially when we get to the late window. The best games for 10/22 are below and so are the best bets.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama
If you watched the instant college football classic last week with Tennessee and Alabama you’ll notice Josh Heupel is legit and so is Hendon Hooker. But the main thing that stood out to me was Bryce Young. We knew he was good and had plenty of composure but I have never seen a QB ever show the toughness and the skill that Bryce Young showed just to make a game close. He did everything. His receivers stink including Jermaine Burton who transferred from Georgia who also hits a Tennessee woman on his way off the field. Bryce also got rocked a couple times that I was sure it was targeting or roughing but no targeting was called and Bryce got right back up and kept slinging. I could clearly talk all day about Bryce being the best in college football but I’ll do that another time. Jahmyr Gibbs is a superstar running back per usual from Alabama. Will Anderson did not play well last week and this is a week he needs to get to the QB as Mississippi State runs Air Raid offense.
Mississippi State is doing their thing like usual. They win some solid games and lose some stinkers. They lost to LSU away that LSU had to win or Brian Kelly might have already been fired and they just lost to Kentucky away when Kentucky last week got back their possible first round QB Will Levis. So to be fair they could be undefeated but i doubt Leach even wants to be undefeated. He just wants to run his air raid offense and throw for a billion yards a game. Will Rogers is a solid QB and while I’ve seen him throw plenty of dumb passes I’ve also seen him quarterback some brilliant football games. He is asked a lot from Mike Leach and of this offense. He’s asked to throw 60 times a game and he’s asked to get absolutely drilled by defensive lineman each game because the offensive line isn’t great. Will is a tough kid he’s been around for a while but unfortunately the heavy hits are going to continue on Saturday.
The Bet: Saban and the players need a big one as everyone is expecting. Alabama doesn’t let teams score much in Tuscaloosa. Mississippi State is in a tough spot and it’s unfortunate. I think they will show some fight and score a little but I have a feeling Alabama will score more. Alabama -21.
Minnesota vs. Penn State
Minnesota isn’t bad and I don’t mind Minnesota as a college football team whatsoever. The issue is PJ Fleck. I get Minnesota may not get a better recruiting coach than Fleck but Minnesota have to understand that’s all he is. He can recruit a few guys to the school but he can’t coach them to a successful season. A successful season by the way would be to win the Big Ten West that they were firmly in the drivers seat for considering Wisconsin stinks and Northwestern can’t compete and they’ve absolutely bottled the Big Ten West. Seasons not over but PJ Fleck is not they guy to bring a team success on the big stage. Also Tanner Morgan has been the QB there forever and its kind of crazy because he just is not good and never was good. Minnesota has lost two straight and make it three Saturday night.
Penn State isn’t much better. James Franklin isn’t the answer and he never was it seems kind of insane to extend him as much as they did just to be third every year in the Big Ten. How does a team ever compete with Michigan or Ohio State when your QB has been Sean Clifford for the last what 6 years? Is he better than Tanner Morgan? Sure. But not by much.
Last two years Penn State starts hot and undefeated but when the big boy schedule comes around they get smoked and rely on Sean Clifford which is a mistake. Penn State does recruit good running backs per usual as Nick Singleton has stepped in as a Freshman and has been really good and looks to stay really good for another two years. Finally prior to last weeks loss to Michigan, Penn State had a top 5 defense in run defense in the country. Obviously Michigan is bigger and better than Penn State but Minnesota is not bigger and better than Penn State. Minnesota relies heavily on Mohamed Ibrahim their running back so its key to stop him and force Tanner Morgan to throw.
The Bet: If Minnesota can’t run the ball which I don’t think they will effectively then Penn State covers -4.5.
Kansas State vs. TCU
Adrian Martinez and the Wildcats are off a bye that they needed badly because after watching that game against Iowa State I was disgusted with football just like after the Colts Broncos game. Besides a complete blunder to Tulane earlier in the year Kansas State has been good. Tulane also has a really good defense this year out of nowhere which is pretty cool in college football to see but still poor from Kansas State nonetheless.
While Kansas State is not a great throwing team they are so good at running with Martinez and Deuce Vaughn that when they do throw it is normally single coverage with not much safety help due to the box being stacked. The issue is Martinez isn’t the greatest thrower nor does he have great receivers. The plus side is everything could work for them this week. TCU is beat up after a comeback win vs. Ok St. last week and Kansas State is fresh and prepped for two weeks on TCU.
TCU like I mentioned is tired. If you watched last week the comeback was cool. Sort of. Having the over the comeback was perfect. Spencer Sanders and Max Duggan were playing a game of spike because the throws in the second half were so short and inaccurate they had to have been challenging each other or they were exhausted/hurt.
Duggan took a pretty big hit in the second half and was really clutching his shoulder. He is another QB that has incredible toughness especially after his heart condition and being benched to start the year. For TCU to have success against Kansas State they have to feed the ball to Quentin Johnston. He is their star wide receiver and climbing in draft stock. He’s 6’4″ and watching TCU games I’m not sure why they don’t throw him the ball every single time even if he is doubled. He’s that good. TCU playing at home will be a boost for them but Kansas State coming off a bye might be an issue.
The Bet: Kansas State +3.5 looks to be the right side here coming off the bye and the running attack they threaten with. TCU will put up points in my opinion so the over 54.5 looks like a great bet as well.
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