There was an infamous TV commercial aired in the UK that was lambasted by critics for portraying a bettor who took punts based on his hunch or a gut feeling as a successful gambler.
It is such a universal truth that betting in this way is a bad thing that the commercial was rightly pilloried by gambling charities. Every once in a while a hunch may end up being right, but a stopped clock is also right twice a day…
If you want to make money and have fun whilst gambling on sporting events, you need to consider a wide range of factors before wagering any cash. Before you start looking for the best legal sportsbooks in NJ, read this article to find out the four key areas to research for a successful bet.
Team News
You might look at a fixture between Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions as a sure thing, an easy bet to make, the Bears will obviously win. Well, what if you found out that the Chicago side were in the midst of an injury crisis that had downed Khalil Mack and a string of other crucial players?
You would naturally be more cautious about the game and adapt your bet accordingly. Finding out basic information such as long-term injuries is fairly easy, all you have to do is complete a quick Google search.
However, if you want the true lowdown make sure to log-on to fan forums and check out fan run sites. Worried fans may be discussing the impact of an unreported stomach bug which is ravaging the squad.
Certain fans may also relay information about team selection that has come from a source within the team. All of these details and snippets of information can help you to make a better informed bet. The type of bet that mitigates the dreaded ‘accumulator buster’.
The Chicago Bears with Khalil Mack are a very different proposition to without the line backer
History
Logically past events and results should have no impact or bearing on the outcome of future sports games. Sport, as we all know, rarely follows the rules of logic and rational thinking though.
History can play a significant role in modern day sport. Take the Detroit Lions as the perfect example. In 2015 the franchise beat the Green Bay Packers in Wisconsin for the first time since 1991.
Over the course of those 24 years the fortunes of the two teams had fluctuated wildly, with the Lions sometimes being the better team and the Packers sometimes being the better.
Despite that the Lions continued to lose to the Packers in Wisconsin, most notably in 1994 when they lost a playoff game at Lambeau Field. Whilst the playing staff changed over that time, the curse did not.
It weighed down heavily on the fans at first, before being passed onto the team and the coaching staff. At times during that winless run it almost felt as if the Lions were playing not just against another team, but the weight of history as well.
Before backing a team, make sure you check their recent form against their upcoming opponent. A sporting curse can be more powerful than talent, and you don’t want that bad luck to transfer onto your bet.
Detroit Lions 1994 playoff loss in Wisconsin played heavily on the minds of the club for the following 21 years
Form
When you head online to bet, many sites will display the league tables next to the fixtures.
The provider wants you to look at the league table and use it as the sole basis for your winning selections. Top of the table versus bottom of the table? Easy bet, the league leaders will win right?
Not necessarily. You have to dive down into the stats to find out the current form of both teams before making your bet.
The league leaders may be experiencing a wobble as the end of season heat gets too much for them. Whereas the bottom side could be revitalised under a new coach, eager to claim a big scalp that will fully mark their recovery. Form dictates player’s confidence which in turn influences results, don’t ignore it.
Deep stats
In recent years the MLS has started to compile xG (expected goals) stats for every team in the league. Every single shot taken is attributed a rating out of 100 that indicates the probability of the ball hitting the back of the net – a shot from 30 yards may have an xG of 0.10 whereas one from short range would have a much higher xG figure.
These stats help fans, players and coaches to fully understand the performances of teams and individual players. In last season’s Eastern Conference New York City finished atop of the league heading into the playoffs.
During the regular season they had scored 63 goals, however the xG figures showed that they should have scored significantly less. The implication from this discrepancy was that NYFC had pushed their luck over the season and thus over performed.
There playoff opponents Toronto however, had performed fairly consistently to their xG throughout the season. In the game, Toronto’s xG was higher than NYFC’s and they won the game 2-1.
NYFCs luck finally ran out, which you would have been able to predict fairly easily had you studied the deep stats ahead of the clash.
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