Georgia seeks its 5th SEC title in six seasons as a touchdown favorite
With all due respect to both Georgia and Tennessee’s remaining schedule, I think it is safe to say this game decides the SEC East. Georgia would be looking to win their 5th SEC East title in 6 years. On the other side, the Tennessee Vols have not won the SEC East since 1998. Both teams are coming off of blowout wins and should come in confident, motivated, and ready for battle.
The common opponent that these two teams have are the Florida Gators. Last week, Georgia defeated the Gators on a neutral field while the Vols eeked out a five-point win back in September. Anthony Richardson, who is not known for his throwing ability had a field day through the air throwing for over 425 yards. Georgia had some success against Richardson holding him under 285 yards as well as under 50 percent of passes completed. Georgia rushed for over 200 yards in that game, which was something they wanted to do more effectively.
UGA did receive bad news this week, with the loss of star linebacker Nolan Smith. Although the Georgia defense is loaded with talent, this is a massive loss. Smith is responsible for 30 percent of the teams’ sacks, is a top-five tackler, and is the unquestioned leader of this defense.
Georgia linebacker Nolan Smith still impacting No. 3 Bulldogs, despite season-ending injuryhttps://t.co/wgGJO2o28P
— McClain (@McclainBaxley) November 2, 2022
On a brighter note, the Bulldogs welcome back stud defensive tackle Jalen Carter. The potential top-ten pick returned last week in limited form but according to Kirby Smart, he will have an increased role this week.
After losing a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball last year, UGA still remains dominant on defense. They rank 2nd in points per game allowed (10.2) and 10th in 3rd down conversions allowed. This week they face their toughest challenge in a Tennessee offense that has not been stopped or slowed down all season.
Conversely, this will be the toughest defense that Tennessee will have faced this season. It will be the definition of good on good with the Bulldogs defense facing off with the Tennessee offense.
Tennessee plays at breakneck speeds and starts out games extremely well. They are 5th in plays per minute and top 20 in total offensive drives. Tennessee is outscoring their opponents 103-20 in the first quarter. The Vols have four shutouts and have won seven of the eight first quarters of the season. It will be key for Georgia to come out and limit Tennessee’s explosiveness. That is a lot easier said than done, but I think Georgia has the guys to slow down this Vols offense.
Not many receivers are playing at the level that Jalin Hyatt is playing. He leads the nation in touchdowns (14), 4th in yards (907), and 1st in 40+ yard catches (9). The return of his running mate Cedric Tillman will only enhance his productivity by taking away some of the double teams.
Tillman returned last week on a snap count, but in Josh Heupel’s press conference he ensured Tillman would be a full go. Georgia does have one of the better secondaries in the country and it will be put to the test this weekend with the bevy of weapons on this Vols offense.
The secondary of Georgia is extremely deep and talented. This is an advantage for them being able to successfully rotate guys in and out to cover the Vols’ receivers. A matchup to keep an eye on is Jalin Hyatt against Javon Bullard. Hyatt does a lot of his damage out of the slot, which is where Bullard primarily plays.
Out of 169 coverage snaps, Bullard has only allowed 38 yards, with 34 of those yards being allowed in the slot. Hyatt is the best receiver that Bullard and this Georgia secondary have seen, but I think they could at least limit some of his explosive plays.
Known as a pass-dominant team (which they are), the Vols have also had great success in being able to run the ball. They rank 25th in rush offense, 13th in yards per rush, and 13th in rushing success rate. It will be interesting to see how much the Vols try to run on a Georgia defense that ranks 3rd in rush yards allowed.
With Jalen Carter being back in the middle of the Georgia defense, I do not see the Vols having as much success as they had in previous weeks. Carter has a 30 percent win rate which not only helps Georgia stop the run, but also their ability to get some pressure on Hendon Hooker.
From a matchup perspective, Georgia has the biggest advantage. The secondary of the Vols ranks 126th in pass yards allowed, while Georgia is 8th in passing yards per game. While the wide receivers for Georgia are banged up, they still have the best tight-end trio we have probably ever seen in college football. The biggest question will be, can Stetson Bennett go out and slice this secondary up? If he can, Georgia will be in a good position to not only win but cover this game.
Georgia can win in multiple ways and has been able to get the ground game going over the last few games. Although Tennessee is top ten in rush yards allowed, they have not faced an offensive line as talented and physical as Georgia. I look for more of a ground-and-pound approach from Georgia to control the clock and keep their defense fresh. With that, Stetson Bennett should be able to hit his talented tight ends on play-action passes to move the chains through the air when needed.
This game opened with Georgia as a nine-point favorite at Circa, which is the most influential sportsbook on college football openers. Throughout the week, there has been money bet on Tennessee which is why we sit at Georgia -7.5 currently.
Tennessee has not had much success against UGA recently. They have lost the last five matchups, and ten of the last twelve. In the last five games, the Vols have failed to score over 21 points on the Georgia defense. I forecast Georgia winning this game by double digits, and I would not be surprised if Tennessee does not top 21 points for the 6th straight season against UGA.
College Football 🏈
Week 10 Opening LinesOpening App Limits: $5K Sides, $2K Totals pic.twitter.com/575ATZyIIH
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) October 30, 2022
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