It’s the first Big Ten game of the season at the State Farm Center for the Illini as the Nittany Lions come to town
After the thrilling win at Madison Square Garden in the Jimmy V Classic over Texas, the Illini return home for Penn State. Head coach Brad Underwood has won four straight over the Nittany Lions, dating back to pre-COVID in February of 2020 when his team beat a No. 9 ranked Penn State squad on the road. They battled each other last season in Champaign, the Illini won 60-55, but Penn State was well prepared and played well enough to stay in it.
However, this year’s Illini team is different. They have a ton of different weapons that can overwhelm in any game, this was on display against Texas. Terrence Shannon Jr. is likely one of the best players in the country but didn’t contribute until overtime against Texas. That says a lot about the quality depth that they have.
Projected Starting Lineups
- Penn State
- G Camren Wynter (6-foot-2) (Drexel transfer) (26 pts vs. Clemson)
- G Jalen Pickett (6-foot-4) (13 pts, 17 reb vs. MSU) (Elite defender)
- G Andrew Funk (6-foot-5) (Bucknell transfer) (22-60 from 3pt, 36%)
- F Seth Lundy (6-foot-6) (64% from 2pt range, 46% from 3pt range)
- C Kebba Njie (6-foot-10) (Freshman – 116 natl, 4-star 247)
The Nittany Lions are a slow-paced, grind-it-out team this season. Despite being a brilliant player, Pickett remains underrated throughout the country. Their two transfer guards Wynter and Funk are solid shooters that bring a similar skill set to what they had last season. As for Lundy, he’s a veteran that has been around since 2019-20 for this team.
I’ll be interested to see how Njie plays, he’s their top freshman, but hasn’t gotten a ton of usage through nine games this season. I also think that head coach Micah Shrewsberry is one of the best game planners in the Big Ten, but this Illini team is extremely difficult to plan for.
- Illinois
- G Skyy Clark
- G RJ Melendez
- G Terrence Shannon Jr.
- F Matthew Mayer
- F Coleman Hawkins
The Analytics Between the Two Teams
As per usual, these numbers come from KenPom and Haslametrics.
- KenPom
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency – ILL 29th, PSU 43rd
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency – ILL 12th, PSU 56th
- Adjusted Tempo – ILL 27th, PSU 282nd
- Haslametrics
- All-Play Percentage – ILL 11th, PSU 46th
- Offensive Efficiency – ILL 30th, PSU 58th
- Defensive Efficiency – ILL 12th, PSU 41st
The Illini have the upper hand in all the metrics, but Penn State can slow this game down to their advantage. The Illini still have their struggles in their half-court offense. I am a little bit surprised that Penn State’s defense isn’t better, but they shouldn’t be underestimated.
Players to Watch & Prediction
- Players to Watch
- Penn State – Jalen Pickett
- As I mentioned earlier, Pickett is severely underrated. He had 17 rebounds against Michigan State and tore the Illini up last season. They should be able to match up with him this season defensively, but he’s still an excellent player.
- Illinois – Terrence Shannon Jr.
- I think Shannon Jr. is going to have a big game in this one. He was elite in overtime against Texas and likely wants to make up for the struggles he had in the regulation of that game. I think the Shannon Jr. vs. Pickett matchup will be fun to watch.
- Penn State – Jalen Pickett
- Predictions
- Illinois wins 66-64
It’s going to be closer than Illini fans would like. Despite the sellout crowd, they seem to struggle in early pre-noon games. However, I do think the Illini will win this game to get their Big Ten record to 1-1 before conference games ramp up in January.
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