Illinois Basketball Gameday Preview: vs. Syracuse

The Illini take on the Syracuse Orange in the 2022 Big Ten/ACC Challenge

The Illini look to extend their Big Ten/ACC Challenge win streak to three games as a down Syracuse team comes to town. The Big Ten has a great outlook in this year’s challenge. I predicted the Big Ten to go 11-3 with the only losses being Virginia over Michigan, Duke over Ohio State, and Virginia Tech already beat Minnesota. However, I will have to be wrong somewhere with Pittsburgh beating Northwestern handily. With that said, the Illini can’t take this game for granted, they must take care of business.

The Orange are 3-3 and are coming off of a loss to Bryant, where their top freshman Judah Mintz was ejected for slapping Bryant G Doug Edert (a member of the 2022 Cinderella Saint Peter’s team). This is nowhere near the typical Jim Boeheim team, that’s for sure.

Projected Starting Lineups

• Syracuse
  • G Joseph Girard (6-foot-1) (1-12 from three in last two games)
  • G Judah Mintz (6-foot-3) (4-star freshman averaging 16.2 ppg)
  • F Chris Bell (6-foot-7) (14 points vs. Bryant)
  • F Benny Williams (6-foot-9) (17 points and 8 rebounds in loss to Colgate)
  • C Jesse Edwards (6-foot-11) (21 rebounds vs. Bryant)

This Syracuse team returned two starters and five players overall from last season. It hasn’t looked cohesive or efficient for a team that typically prides itself on scoring ability. They rank worse than 150th in both 2-point and 3-point percentages this season. However, they have a lot of experience in their rotation to complement stud freshman Mintz, who somehow appears not to be suspended for this game.

• Illinois
  • G Skyy Clark
  • G RJ Melendez
  • G Terrence Shannon Jr.
  • F Matthew Mayer
  • F Coleman Hawkins

The Illini will look to get another elite performance from Skyy Clark and another confident game from RJ Melendez. There have been some fans that have discussed putting Dain Dainja in the lineup after Coleman Hawkins laid an egg against Lindenwood, but that won’t happen. They need to clean up mistakes and turn the ball over far less than they did on Friday. Don’t be surprised if Clark has another major Performace in this game.

The Analytics Between the Two Teams

As per usual, these numbers come from KenPom and Haslametrics.

• KenPom
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency – ILL 36th, SYR 47th
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency – ILL 20th, SYR 99th
  • Adjusted Tempo – ILL 11th, SYR 312th
• Haslametrics
  • All-Play Percentage – ILL 20th, SYR 85th
  • Offensive Efficiency – ILL 35th, SYR 56th
  • Defensive Efficiency – ILL 16th, SYR 97th

The Illini have the advantage in metrics. However, it’s a contrast in styles with the Illini laying more tempo versus Syracuse’s halfcourt style. If the Illini can dictate the pace, they should be in a great position to win this game. One thing that will be interesting to see is if the Illini can dominate with their half-court defensive prowess.

Players to Watch & Prediction

• Players to Watch
  • Syracuse – Joseph Girard
    • Girard has struggled mightily in the last two games. He’s 2-for-22 from the field in the last two games after scoring 31 points against Richmond on Nov. 21. He needs to be more efficient in this game for Syracuse to win this one.
  • Illinois – Skyy Clark
    • How does Clark follow up his performance against Lindenwood? He was 8-for-9 from the field with 19 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists in that game. He looked aggressive and under control with the ball in his hands, and his defensive performance was elite as well.
• Predictions
  • Illinois wins 79-65

I think this game will be closer than expected, but the Illini should pull this one out. They are more talented and better coached with Brad Underwood figuring out what his team is this season through six games. This will be an interesting game to watch regardless of the outcome.

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