Research shows great QBs make the playoffs within three years of becoming full-time starters for their franchise, Justin Fields needs to do the same.
The pressure is on Justin Fields to show that he has the potential to be a great NFL quarterback heading into his third year, to do that the Bears have to make the playoffs. It’s not even a trend among the greatest QBs that Justin Fields has to follow, it’s the standard. Justin Fields enters year three as the Chicago Bears starter and if he is the type of QB the Chicago Bears need him to be he’ll lead the to the playoffs.
The great NFL QBs from the last 30 years have all made the playoffs within their third year in the NFL, most of them by their second year. Research shows that QBs that have been named to the NFL All-Pro team over the last 30 years out of those QBs, all but one of the players have made the playoffs by their third full year as the primary starting QB of their team.
From Randall Cunningham in 1992 to Jalen Hurts in 2022 all of the QBs but Rich Gannon (All-Pro 2002) have made the playoffs by the time they become the primary starter for their team. In the cases of Steve Young, Kurt Warner Aaron Rodgers didn’t take over as full-time starters as rookies because they rode the bench before becoming full-time starters. However, by their third full season as the starter for their team, they had in fact taken their team to the playoffs. Essentially, if a QB is among the NFL All-Pro selections in their careers or is mentioned as an All-Pro player by a certain publication they take their team to the playoffs. The list also includes Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, Phillip Rivers, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow who were awarded All-Pro honors by a secondary publication.
1992 Randall Cunningham yes
1993 Steve Young yes
1994 Steve Young yes
1995 Steve Young yes
1996 Brett Favre yes
1997 Steve Young yes
1998 Steve Young yes
1999 Kurt Warner yes
2000 Peyton Manning yes
2001 Brett Favre yes
2002 Rich Gannon No
2003 Steve McNair yes
2004 Peyton Manning yes
2005 Tom Brady yes
2006 Drew Brees yes
2007 Tom Brady yes
2008 Peyton Manning yes
2009 Peyton Manning yes
2010 Tom Brady yes
2011 Aaron Rodgers yes
2012 Peyton Manning yes
2013 Aaron Rodgers yes
2014 Aaron Rodgers yes
2015 Cam Newton yes
2016 Matt Ryan yes
2017 Tom Brady yes
2018 Patrick Mahomes yes
2019 Lamar Jackson yes
2020 Aaron Rodgers yes
2021 Aaron Rodgers yes
2022 Patrick Mahomes yes
Other QBs who were awarded an NFL All-Pro by a secondary publication
Matt Ryan yes
, Phillip Rivers yes
, Tony Romo yes,
Carson Palmer yes
, Carson Wentz yes,
Joe Burrow yes,
Jalen Hurts yes
As I wrote last year with QBs who start two Super Bowls in their careers, greatness at the QB position is the primary reason teams find success. Out of all of the QBs who have made two career Super Bowl starts (not wins), only Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Jim Plunkett, Joe Theismann and Craig Morton are not in the Hall of Fame. Arguably Roethlisberger Manning and Wilson will wind up in the Hall of Fame sooner or later.
If Justin Fields is going to be among the greatest QBs to ever play the game, his greatness will arrive this season, his third year in the NFL. If not the Chicago Bears will be in a constant state of trying to build a team around him strong enough to get to the playoffs, rather than having Justin Fields be the primary reason they make the playoffs.
Essentially Justin Fields has little room for error in his third year in the NFL as the starting QB. Justin Fields needs to take advantage of a weak NFC Division and lead the Bears into the playoffs.
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