Welcome to NFL Overreaction Tuesday, for week 10 we witnessed the Eagles take their first loss, the Bills fail to win in overtime again after a wild finish against the Vikings and the Packers pull off a comeback win in OT. I break down if there’s more to these wins and losses than what shows on the scoreboard in this week’s Overreaction Tuesday.
Not an Overreaction: The Buffalo Bills can’t handle the clutch.
While Josh Allen is still looking for his first win in OT for his career, the Bills are by no means incapable of showing up in the biggest moments. Most notably, the Bills loss in overtime against the Chiefs in 2021, where Buffalo scored within less than a minute on an incredible 6-play 75-yard drive that gave the Bills a field goal lead with 13 seconds remaining. The Chiefs would tie the game with a field goal and Allen would never see the field in OT.
However, Sunday’s chaotic finish showed different signs of worry. After an incredible 4th and goal stand by the Bills defense, the offense took over from their 1/2-yard line, where Josh Allen fumbled the snap and the Vikings recovered for a touchdown. The Bills would get a shot in OT, but Allen would throw an awful red-zone interception to veteran corner Patrick Peterson.
Allen has characteristically been money inside the 20, posting just two interceptions in the red zone his entire career. After those 331 dropbacks, Allen has thrown an interception in the red zone in each of the Bills last three games. Allen is now completing 51% of his red-zone throws, which is down from 63.1% in 2020 and Allen also has the fourth-lowest passer rating among all qualified NFL quarterbacks in the red zone with 75.4 only behind the likes of Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, and Russell Wilson.
All of the Bills losses come from three points or less and in all three losses the Bills had a chance to score and win the game. Allen is 0-4 in OT in his career, he and Buffalo will have to master the clutch if they want to maintain the status of Superbowl favorites.
Overreaction: The Eagles had a first-game exit in the Playoffs is eminent.
The Eagles’ hopes of an immortal 17-0 season were crushed on Monday Night Football with a loss to the somewhat lost Washington Commanders. The 32- 21 loss will leave fans scratching their heads and Eagles fan still upset at the problematic officiating of the MNF upset. A blown missed facemask call on the Eagles drive coupled with an egregious roughing the passer penalty in the final seconds of the game sealed the Eagles fate.
Now just because the perfect season is over, it does not mean the Eagles season is over. They are now tied with the Vikings for the best record in the NFC and if they win out would hold the tiebreaker over the Vikings for the top seat in the NFL playoffs. This slates them against the winner of the 6-7 seed teams, which if the season ended today it would be the winner of Cowboys-49ers.
A formidable matchup that would test the Eagles, but to say that the Eagles would automatically lose that game based on strength of schedule may be a stretch. As I have expressed in previous articles, the Giants and the Eagles have the two easiest schedules in the NFL. As nice as it is to have an easy schedule it also does not test the teams as hard as those who have a baptism by fire throughout the season.
Not an Overreaction: The Packers and Aaron Rodgers are back
It has been a tumultuous and vacillating season for the Packers since their star wide receiver Devonte Adams departure. The Packers sit at 4-6 on the season but got a big win against the Dallas Cowboys in overtime. Aaron Rodgers looked like the back-to-back NFL MVP connecting with rookie wide receiver Christian Watson for 3 scores. Rodgers was 14/20 with 224 yards and 3 touchdowns and was instrumental in the Packers’ 14-point comeback.
In previous articles, I had mentioned that the Packer’s model for success was surrounded by getting the running game going and allowing Rodgers to work off of play action more. Green Bay running back Aaron Jones racked up 138 yards on 24 carries and a score, while backup AJ Dillion managed 13 carries for 65 yards.
The biggest lift was from the defense picking off Dak Prescott twice in the first half, sacking him twice, holding the Cowboys scoreless for the 4th quarter, and turning them over on downs in OT. This made the Packer’s comeback possible and is what ultimately led them to the game-winning field goal in OT. Green Bay is toward the bottom of the NFL with only one takeaway per game, but have one of the best 3rd down defenses in the NFL allowing a 32.74% conversion.
The Packers have struggled to find consistency in the run game this season, but if they figure that out, don’t be surprised to see them as a bubble team come January.
Overreaction: Raiders blow the team up after this season.
Calling the Raiders season tumultuous and vacillating would be a compliment in comparison to how poorly the Raiders have played this year. Getting Devonte Adam was the final piece in their master plan to finally be relevant in the AFC again. Only for the Raiders to beat themselves and ruin their chances for any playoff appearance this year.
Las Vegas is allowing the highest red zone touchdown percentage in the NFL with opponents scoring touchdowns a whopping 74.41%. On top of their horrible red zone defense, the Raiders are a running game one trick on offense. When they cannot run the ball effectively with Jacobs they struggle to move the ball consistently and leave Derek Carr back to pass too many times. Carr is throwing 1.5 interceptions a game which is 5th worst in the NFL.
With the exception of getting blanked 24-0 in October by the Saints. The Raiders have had a chance to win every game they have played this season. Every loss has been decided by less than 6 points so far this season. A year ago Las Vegas had one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. In the wake of former coach Jon Gruden’s exit 6 first-round picks for the Raiders are no longer on the team, or the team did not pick up their fifth-year option. Leaving the Gruden era as a glaring issue for the Raiders current and future struggles.
What were some of your overreactions from week 10? Do you agree with my overreactions? Let me know in the comment section below.
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