The Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins have been linked in trade discussions which would send Minnesota Twins Ace Pablo López to the Chicago Cubs.
The Chicago Cubs are still in need of an Ace to help anchor their starting rotation not just for an entire 162 game season, but to tackle and take down game one of a critical playoff series. So far, the Cubs have swung and miss in their efforts to trade for a top tier starting pitcher with their hopes of acquiring Jesús Luzardo now nixed after he was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Chicago Cubs could still pursue Luzardo’s teammate Sandy Alcántara who Miami Marlins General Manager Peter Bendix indicated that their open to listening on.
Pivoting to another Starting Pitcher
After the Chicago Cubs decided to walk away from the Jesús Luzardo deal after the deal was reported to be dead by 670 The Score Bruce Levine writing:
“That deal appears to be dead right now,” “We don’t know what the reason is, it was very hot for a long period of time. Maybe the medicals on one side or the other [weren’t] good. So they’ll be shifting, they still need another starting pitcher in my mind. They have plenty of starting pitching, there’s just a redundancy of guys that throw 92 miles per hour.”
With the Chicago Cubs now shifting their focus elsewhere to find the top-of-the-line starter they need, the Cubs should look to trade for Minnesota Twins All-Star Ace Pablo López. López who comes into the 2025 season with roughly seven years’ service time and would be solid addition to the Cubs pitching staff. López who has a career record of 54-49 with a career ERA of 3.91 in 889.1 career innings is really starting to come into his own now as a pitcher and is on the verge of really turning a corner and becoming a great pitcher.
Pablo López by the numbers
In 2024 López took a semi-step back in his numbers going 15-10 with a 4.08 ERA in 32 starts (185.1 innings), accumulating 198 strikeouts, a FIP of 3.65, and a WHIP of 1.192. However, López overall numbers are a little deceiving being that he struggled in the first half, but dominated coming out of the All-Star break. In the first half López in 19 starts (104 innings) went 8-7 with a 5.11 ERA and had 121 strikeouts. In the second half López was much better going 7-3 with a 2.77 ERA in 13 starts (81.1 innings) and gathering 77 strikeouts.
Pablo López also is a better pitcher when you just watch him in person or on the television, his pitch mix of his Four-seam fastball that he works so well off his changeup that fools hitters so much and led to López having close to 200 strikeouts and being in the 89th percentile for chase percentage at 33% according to Baseball Savant. Pablo López also rated in the 90th percentile walk percentage (5.3%) and 95th percentile for extension at 7.1 feet which makes his fastball perceived velocity that much faster.
What will it take to Acquire Pablo López?
While listening to a recent interview that 670 The Score had with the Star Tribune and Minnesota Twins beat writer Bobby Nightengale in which they discussed the possibility of a Pablo López trade with the Cubs and said that in Nightengale’s opinion that it would take a player Pete Crow-Armstrong going to Minnesota in order to acquire Pablo López. Now the Cubs wouldn’t do that deal given that value Pete Crow-Armstrong so highly and he figures to be a huge part of their outfield for this season. However, I’m sure there’s another player of equal value that the Minnesota Twins would like to have in order for them to depart with Pablo López.
López who according to Spotrac is owed $21.75 million for each of the next three season totaling $65.25 million in that span. The Chicago Cubs would be more than able to take on that salary if they were to part with a player in pre-arbitration or in arbitration since they traded away Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees who assumed all of his salary for this year.
Chicago Cubs receive: right-hander Pablo López
Minnesota Twins receive: Owen Caissie (Cubs #2, MLB #34) and first basemen/third basemen Cole Mathis (Cubs #11 prospect)
If according to Bobby Nightengale that if both the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs were to do a 1-for-1 swap for Pablo López than it would take a player such as Pete Crow-Armstrong to get it done. As I said the Cubs won’t do that deal given how much they value Pete Crow-Armstrongs abilities. So instead, I think sending them Owen Caissie who is a top 100 prospect and adding in a flier such as Cole Mathis gets the deal done in my estimation. With the Minnesota Twins ownership trying to sell the team and shed payroll doing a deal like this makes sense for them to do.
Caissie who as I said ranks 34th on MLB top 100 prospects list and has the ability to be a star once called up. In 127 games at Triple-A Caissie had 131 hits, 29 doubles, 3 triples, 19 HRs, 75 RBI for a slash line .278/.375/.473 for an OPS of .848. Currently as the Cubs roster is constructed Caissie would be relegated to the bench since all three outfield spots are currently occupied, barring injury.
With Ian Happ manning leftfield, Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, and newly acquire outfielder Kyle Tucker manning right with Seiya Suzuki getting time there when Tucker DH’s. So, shipping Caissie to Minnesota where he can get consistent playing time, and every day at-bats would only benefit him instead of sending him back to the minor leagues to do that.
For Cole Mathis he would be a solid flier for the Minnesota Twins to take a chance on. Drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the second round of this year’s MLB Amateur Draft by the Chicago Cubs out of College of Charleston. Being drafted out of college Mathis is more polished than others and should rise through the minor league ranks rather quickly. During his time at Charleston Mathis had 67 hits, with 14 HRs, 57 RBI and a slash line of .335/.472/.650 for an OPS of 1.122 in 52 games.
Getting a deal done for Pablo López or even Sandy Alcántara needs to be a priority for the Chicago Cubs to get done. In the same interview with Bobby Nightengale Bruce Levine said he felt that a deal between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs for Pablo López could actually get done.
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