Tuesday has come and gone and the lines have been adjusted. I’ll be honest, every pick I have this week would have been better if you were able to get the bet in before Tuesday evening. Because of that, I thought I needed to hold off.
If you’re new to sports betting, you may not be used to how everything operates. Here’s a heads up, if you read something here and decide you want to throw a few bucks on a game, you need to do it today. Two of my three picks are underdogs and these lines will change again before Friday afternoon.
That tip is free.
All of the numbers I’m providing are through Bovada and can be found on oddshark.com. If you’d like to place a bet and aren’t exactly sure where you should go, check out my buddies at mybookie.ag.
Do yourself a favor and find a few other sites that take bets on the game. Not everyone will use the spreads as found on oddshark. There’s nothing wrong with having some cash in an account with more than one site. The problem is playing with money you don’t have to spend and putting your finances in jeopardy. Let’s roll.
Iowa (+3.5) at Michigan
If you’re into stats and numbers, this game has upset written all over it. The Iowa Hawkeyes are straight-up mean on the defensive side of the ball and Michigan quarterback Shane Patterson hasn’t handled pressure well this season.
Patterson has some nice digits. He’s completed 67 of 113 passes for 905 yards and six touchdowns. He also has two interceptions and has been sacked nine times for a loss of 67 combined yards.
The Hawkeyes have five players on defense with at least one sack this year. DB Michael Ojemudia has two interceptions and has kept opposing team’s top receivers at bay.
Iowa’s defense is only giving up an average of 8.5 points per game this season and has been able to hold opponents to just 77 rushing yards per game. I like Iowa and the points in this one and wouldn’t be surprised if they get a straight-up win on the road.
- Iowa is 8-3 ATS last 11 after giving up less than 100 rushing yards in the previous game.
- Iowa is 10-4 ATS last 14 on fieldturf.
- Michigan is 1-4 ATS last five games at home.
- Michigan is 0-5 ATS last five games following a straight-up win.
Pittsburgh (+4) at Duke
Regardless of what their record says, the Panthers have a solid defense this year. They lost 17-10 at Penn State earlier in the season and won 35-34 against UCF last week. Yes, I know their starting quarterback is still questionable right now but it’s not the offense that will cover this spread. And besides, backup Nick Patti did alright last week. He completed 23 of 37 attempts for 271 yards and two touchdowns.
Here’s the thing. Pitt is tough on defense. They only give up 91.8 rushing yards a game with 21 points. Yes, Duke had an impressive 45-10 win on the road at Virginia Tech last week. The Hokies aren’t the team we’re used to seeing.
Also, Duke has the most one-sided offense I’ve ever seen. Quarterback Quentin Harris is a beast. He’s thrown for 842 yards this season with 10 touchdowns. He’s also the team’s leading rusher with 303 yards on the ground. Duke’s leading receiver is their tight end, Noah Grey. Harris will have his hands full against this defense. I’m taking Pitt and the points.
- Pitt is 9-2 ATS last 5 after scoring less than 20 points in the previous game.
- Pitt is 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road.
- Pitt is 4-1 ATS last 5 against a team with a winning record.
- Duke is 2-5 ATS last 7 games at home.
Michigan State at Ohio State (-20.5)
I need to get something straight here. I’m not a Buckeye fan. As a matter of fact, I can’t stand them. I love winning money, though. We’re six weeks into the college football season and it’s already started. “The Buckeyes are good but they can’t win big against anyone worth beating.”
I have two very significant reasons why I think Ohio State not only wins but wins big this week at home.
- LSU Tigers
- Oklahoma Sooners
Regardless of which poll you follow, these three teams are all knotted up right now. The Buckeyes are playing a ranked team while Oklahoma plays Kansas and LSU plays Utah State. All three of these teams win this Saturday. If the Buckeyes win, not too much is going to change. However, if they beat up the Spartans by three or four touchdowns, they become heavy favorites amongst the teams currently four through seven in the polls.
Regardless of how amazing their offensive and defensive stats are, that’s all the motivation they need. I’ve got Ohio State in this one.
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