The Chicago Cubs Should Look to Sign this Recent World Series Champion

This wouldn’t be a bad deal for the Chicago Cubs to do for a team not really looking to spend a lot on the free agent market as well as a good deal for Walker Buehler giving him security, but as well as a significant pay raise. In 2025 according to Spotrac Buehler made $8.025 million, this deal that Rymer predicts that Walker Buehler will sign would give him a pay raise of $6.975 million, bringing him up to an AAV of $15 million.

The opt-outs are also intriguing, but if I was Jed Hoyer and the Cubs, I wouldn’t want to do the same exact deal for Buehler as they gave to Cody Bellinger who the Cubs just got off of when they trade Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees for Cody Poteet. Yes, this would be cheaper than what the Cubs gave Bellinger, but with teams now needing starting pitching, I would prefer doing an opt-out after the second year of the deal.

Walker Buehler by the Numbers

Buehler, who enters into his age 30 season, is going to be two years removed from having Tommy John surgery which he had back in 2023. He made his return to the Los Angeles Dodgers in May of this year. Going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA, making 16 starts (75.1 innings), 65 strikeouts, and 17 walks, Buehler didn’t have the season he would’ve hoped to have trying to come back from Tommy John, as well as entering the final year of his deal before hitting free agency.

However, Walker Buehler showed up when it mattered the most and that was dominating in the post season. In 10 innings combined between the NLCS and World Series Buehler had three appearances (two starts) going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 13 strikeouts, and collect 1 save which came with him closing out the World Series when he struck out Alex Verdugo. Based off his performance in the post season this would be justification for the Chicago Cubs to give Buehler both a pay raise and a multiyear deal.

The Starting Rotation

The Chicago Cubs starting rotation will be led by Shota Imanaga who can be considered the teams Ace. Last year in his first season in the MLB after coming over from Japan, Imanaga in 173.1 innings (29 starts) had a 15-3 record with a 2.91 ERA, 174 strikeouts, as well as being named an All-Star, and finishing in the top 5 of both the NL Cy Young Voting (5th) and Rookie of the Year voting (4th).

Following Imanaga in the rotation as projected by FanGraphs will be lefty Justin Steele, righty Jameson Taillon, newly signed Matthew Boyd, and Javier Assad possibly filling out the rotation in the fifth spot. Other potential options of pitchers who could see time in the rotation are lefty Jordan Wicks who got some starts last year, but figures to be an option out of the bullpen, as well as Ben Brown who missed time last year due to injury but has started backup with his normal throwing routines this winter.

Why Walker Buehler would Round out this Rotation

Walker Buehler prior to going down with Tommy John surgery was set to be one of the best pitchers in the National League and can still be again. Being that he is 30 and like I said he will be two years removed from the surgery all signs point to Buehler bouncing back to the Cy Young finalist he truly is. I think what we fans saw from Buehler in the post season is the pitcher we will see in 2025 and look more like the 2021 Walker Buehler rather than the 2024 Buehler.

I think Rymer is correct with the length of the deal for Buehler, but not with the opt-outs. Three years is the perfect length to give him security, as well as the time needed to bounce back into what he can be. The only stipulation I have with the deal is the opt-outs. I am fine with giving a player like Walker Buehler opt-outs in order to reestablish his market, but I would be more comfortable with just one opt-out and having it come after the second year of the deal rather than two opt-outs which come back-to-back.

If I’m going to predict a deal suitable for Walker Buehler, I would lean towards a deal similar to that of Seth Lugo which I believe is where Rymer got the numbers and length from. According to Spotrac Lugos contract is three-years/$45 million which comes out to the $15 million AAV that Rymer predicted.

I feel given Walker Buehler’s talents I think if the Cubs adding $5 million to the deal bringing it to a total of $50 million and giving Buehler and opt-out after the second year of the deal (2026) is what would work for both the Chicago Cubs and Walker Buehler. Not only would this add another year for Buehler to get removed from TJ, but it would allow him the ease to not have to worry about pitching for a contract.

With the Chicago Cubs heading toward a Win-Now window adding a proven winner in Walker Buehler as well as adding Kyle Tucker who has also been to and won the World Series, this would send a clear message to the fans that the Chicago Cubs are once again ready to start winning. Buehler if signed would give the Cubs a solid #2 option following Shota Imanaga and provide a nice break between Imanaga and Justin Steele.

So far, the starting pitching market was a blaze with signing after signing but has since cooled off. I suspect that once the holidays wrap up well see another flurry of signings, and hopefully the Chicago Cubs signing Walker Buehler would be one of them.